Preliminary Research On Urban Tourism Area Life Cycle Framework

After Mullins 1991 brought forward the " Tourism Urbanization", "the city through tourism-led development" has become the focus of many city governments to consider the principles and policies, urban tourism is also a corresponding study of the academic community as a tourist hot spot, which has a branch of an important city destination life cycle (RLC). From the date Butler studied the six stages of development of tourism and S model in 1980s, The content and perspective on the study the life cycle has gradual differentiated to the RLC's application, verify, repair and function of evaluation and challenge. Taking an overview of research in this field both at home and abroad, in theory, the concept of RLC is not only defined function can not describe and predict the formation of consensus did not form a complete view of the analytical framework, empirical analysis in the analysis of tourism products are limited to a single region-wide comparative small tourist destination, the city as a tourist to study the life cycle is extremely scarce, the paper highlights three aspects of RLC with urban region, first of all have a tourism life-cycle analysis about the ontology is a tourism or tourism products and explain these key concepts, such as tourism resources, tourism products, tourism attractions, such as a clear comb; followed based on the S model with Eviews using time series analysis software predicts the future of tourism development trend of Yangzhou, Analysised and authenticated of the forecast functions of model of S, and gave an objective analysis of the shortcomings of this approach; The third proposed new research framework of RLC study——the factors of analysis., to supplement the inadequacy of the original.Innovation of article is not only that time-series econometric analysis has being used to the S model and first using to the tourist development of Yangzhou City forecasts, which in Yangzhou City in 2008 predicted the number of 18.779 million and similar to the number of actual data for 2009 statistical 18,750,000 views; and more importantly, to build a tourism life cycle will be located in the urban areas of new research framework - the factors of analysis.