Impact Of The Construction Of The Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel On The Passenger Volume Of Northeast China, North China, And Shandong Peninsula

This article analyzes the current status of passenger flow in the Northeast China,North China,and Shandong Peninsula(Dong-Hua-Shan)area,on the basis of collecting economic,social,and transportation related data from 1990 to 2015,with Excel and SPSS20 technology platforms to use time series forecasting methods and predict the relevant indicator data of 7 time points of 2020,2025,2030,2035,2040,2045 and 2050 of“Dong-Hua Shan”and its 80 subordinate jurisdictions.Based on this,according to the principle of gravitational gravity model,through the establishment of the passenger flow index model,we calculate the passenger flow and the passenger flow through the channel in the “Dong-Hua Shan” area after the completion of Bohai Strait Cross-sea Channel(BSCC).With ArcGIS 10.2 platform space analysis technology,a spatial analysis of the passenger traffic of “Dong-Hua-Shan” and the passenger flow through the channel before and after the completion of the channel.Through the spatial analysis of the passenger volume in the three dimensions of the regional scale,the provincial scale and the prefecture-level city scale,explore the influence of the completion of the passage on the passenger flow in the “Dong-Hua-Shan” area,which is of great practical significance.The study shows:(1)Judging from the three scales,the area with the greatest impact on railway traffic after the completion of the channel is North China,followed by the Northeast and Shandong Peninsula,and the Northeast China and Shandong Peninsular rail passenger traffic increases year by year;The largest impact on highway passenger traffic after the completion of the channel is in the Northeast,followed by the Shandong Peninsula and North China.(2)From the comparison of the increase in passenger flow at the three levels before and after the completion of the channel,it find that the construction of the access road has no influence on the total passenger flow in the “Dong-Hua-Shan” area,and has an impact on the flow of passenger flow within the “Dong-Hua-Shan” area.Passenger traffic in the Northeast China region is much higher than that in the Shandong Peninsula and North China,it accounts for about 93% of the passenger traffic in the “Dong-Hua-Shan” region;Heilongjiang,Liaoning,and Jilin Provinces have the highest passenger flow through the channel,followed by Shandong.Peninsula,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region;Harbin has the highest passenger traffic in the prefecture-level cities,followed by Changchun,Qiqihar,Suihua,Shenyang,Dalian,Jilin,and other cities,and the number of passengers passing through the corridor has continued to increase over time.(3)From the comparative analysis of the passenger capacity through the passage and the passenger capacity of the sea of the Bohai Straits,it is found that the passenger volume of the passageway is far less than the capacity of the sea passenger transport capacity of the Bohai Straits,and the increase in the passenger volume of the passageway from 2030 is declining year by year.It shows that the passenger transport capacity of the Bohai Straits sea transport is fully able to meet the future situation of passenger transport.In this case,the construction of the channel will not only bring about the desired economic benefits,but also bring about huge losses.Therefore,the time for the channel construction has yet to be resolved.This thesis consists of six chapter:Chapter 1 IntroductionFrom the aspects of theoretical research,method research,and empirical research,it discusses the research status and research progress on the construction of traffic lines and passenger traffic at home and abroad,and lays a foundation for the development of research projects.The research framework of the thesis is established under the guidance of related theories of transportation geography,traffic location theory,central ground theory,point-axis theory,push-pull theory and so on.Based on this,establishes the research area and analyze the socio-economic development status of the study area and introduce data sources of the study area.This paper proposes a time series passenger volume forecasting method and a traffic accessibility study method,establishes a passenger flow index model and a passenger flow forecasting model after the completion of the passage,and uses ArcGIS 10.2 platform to analyze the spatial variation of passenger traffic in the study area after the completion of the passage.Chapter 2 Analysis the affecting factors of passenger traffic in the “Dong-Hua-Shan”By analyzing the economic development,population status,and transportation network factors affecting the passenger traffic in the “Dong-Hua-Shan” area,the status of passenger traffic in the “Dong-Hua-Shan” region is revealed.With SPSS20 platform analyze the correlation between economic density,population density,traffic network density and passenger traffic volume,and explore the impact of relevant factors on passenger traffic volume.Research shows that in the passenger volume of railways,the population density and economic density of each province and city in the “Dong-Hua-Shan” region have a great influence on the amount of railway passenger traffic.The railway network density of Shanxi Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region have a great impact on the changes in passenger traffic,the other provinces have little effect.In terms of the number of passengers on roads,in terms of the “Dong-Hua-Shan” area as a whole,economic density and population density have a greater impact on road passenger traffic.The impact of highway traffic network density on road passenger traffic is lower than that of population density and economic density.Chapter 3 The impact on passenger traffic in the “Dong-Hua-Shan” area after the completion of the BSCCIn this chapter,based on the previous authoritative research on the construction of the BSCC,evaluate the time for the construction of cross-sea channels,and assume the establishment of the channel construction is 2040.Using the ArcGIS 10.2 platform to analyze the accessibility changes of 80 prefecture-level cities in the “Dong-Hua-Shan” area,it is concluded that the area with the greatest change in accessibility is the prefecture-level city between the three provinces in Northeast China and the Shandong Peninsula.Based on the socioeconomic data from 1990 to 2015,a time series curve estimation model is used to simulate the relevant indicator data,and a passenger flow index model is established to calculate the amount of railway and road passenger traffic in the “Dong-Hua-Shan” area after the completion of the channel.From the three levels of three regions,nine provinces and cities and 80 prefecture-level cities analyze the impact of the completion of the passage on the railway and highway passenger traffic in the “Dong-Hua-Shan” region.Chapter 4 Comparative analysis the passenger traffic in “Dong-Hua-Shan” before and after the construction of BSCCThis chapter compares and analyzes the changes in the passenger traffic of “Dong-Hua-Shan” before and after the completion of the channel,and conducts comparative analysis of the 2015,2045,2035,and 2045 scales of the regional,provincial,and prefecture-level cities.A comparative analysis of the increase in passenger traffic after completion in 2040,2045,and 2050,and explore the impact of the completion of the passage on the “Dong-Hua-Shan” passenger traffic.Chapter 5 Passenger traffic of the BSCC in the “Dong-Hua-Shan” areaFirstly,it studies the impact of the construction of the BSCC on the accessibility of cities across the country,and calculates the ratio of the area covered by different time and cost savings of each province to the proportion of each corresponding province and area on the basis of the influence of accessibility.Set the different time cost savings for each province and area to cover the passenger flow rate through the cross-sea channel,and finally get the passenger flow through the channel after the channel is completed.Through analysing the amount of passenger traffic passing through the aisles,it can be seen that the number of passengers taking the passage in the Northeast China is much higher than that in the Shandong Peninsula and North China,which accounts for about 93% of the passenger traffic of the “Dong-Hua-Shan” walkway and continues to grow over time.In the 9 provinces and cities of “Dong-Hua-Shan”,Heilongjiang Province,Liaoning Province and Jilin Province had the highest passenger flow through the channel,followed by the Shandong Peninsula and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,indicating that the construction of the passageway had the greatest impact on the passenger traffic of the three Northeast China provinces.From the comparative analysis of the passenger capacity through the passage and the passenger capacity of the sea of the Bohai Straits,it is found that the passenger volume of the passageway is far less than that of the Bohai Strait sea passenger transport capacity,and the increase in the passenger volume of the passageway from 2030 is declining year by year.It shows that the passenger transport capacity of the Bohai Straits sea transport is fully able to meet the future situation of passenger transport.In this case,the construction of the channel will not only bring about the desired economic benefits,but also bring about huge losses.Therefore,the time for the channel construction has yet to be resolved.Chapter 6 Conclusion and discussionThe research method,process and results of the article are summarized.The paper describes the contribution and innovation of the article,discusses the problems and deficiencies in the article,and explains the direction and focus of future research.