Large Infrastructure Projects, Investment Decision Analysis

The investment decision of Large infrastructure projects is one of the most hot issues in recent years, especially with the effort of the financial crisis, the state launched four trillion economic stimulus package, and most of the investment flows to the infrastructure projects, especially in large infrastructure projects. The construction of the large infrastructure projects plays an important role to promote the development of regional economy, and it is also the major means of urban management. However, we are still on the extensive and blindness state of large-scale infrastructure projects investment decision. In addition, the muff on making decision may cause such serious result as: significant economic losses, negative society effort, serious pollution on environment, and so on.In this paper, we combine the research on decision-making from domestic and foreign investment in large infrastructure projects, making the use of systems theory and the project life cycle theory to analysis the characteristics and status of the large-scale infrastructure projects. At present, there are three typical theories on the investment decision-making in domestic and international theorists:Public-choicing theory, principal agent theory, decision-making behavior theory. Due to the limitations of the analysis of investment decisions and the cause of muff in the investment decision-making, we bring up a method from the theoretical dimension and measure dimension innovatively in this paper to solve the problem of decision-making so that we could make decision more scientific and efficient. In the theoretical dimension, we introduces the real options theory to analysis the "waiting value" of large-scale infrastructure projects, and put forward a model based on project risk factors to reflect the economic value of large infrastructure projects. In the measure dimension, we introduce from the following sides:the building of the investors'quality, the improvement of investment decision mechanism, the construction of supervision system in investment decision mechanism, the perfection of the system on post-operation in large infrastructure projects and other aspects of measures to improve the limitation of decision-making in the large-scale infrastructure projects. In evaluation of decision-making, we use a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to evaluate the GX project from the perspective of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and proof the necessity of using this method and show the final results of GX project.