Cost Model Of Cpfr Supply Chain System Based On Ewqr Demand Forecasting Method

Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (Collaborative Planning Forecasting and Replenishment, CPFR) is a hot research issue in the supply chain management. How to deal with the synergies predict by the real-time information to reduce uncertainty factors, improve forecast accuracy, and to reduce inventory costs is the enterprise pursued goal in future. CPFR stressed that retailers and manufacturers work together to establish a supply chain forecasting, which forecast stage is an extremely important part of CPFR. As the actual replenishment information, the accuracy of the synergy demand forecast is particularly important. But more research literature emphasis on CPFR process framework and management effectiveness issues, with a small number of researches on forecasting model, and the accuracy of forecasting model is far from satisfaction. Therefore, it is necessary to study and discuss the CPFR collaborative flow forecast and prediction methods. Based on the demand forecasts in the CPFR supply system, how to get the lower cost, higher service levels and more effective supply chain management has always been the goal of enterprise efforts.Focusing on CPFR supply systems prediction model and cost model, the exponentially weighted quantile regression forecast method is used in this paper. Firstly, the forefront of econometric forecasting method-exponentially weighted quantile regression method is introduced in the field of supply chain demand forecasting,and based on CPFR POS data sharing, sharing business plans and exceptional events with entropy as the application of information systems adjust parameters, CPFR system demand forecasting model is constructed. Secondly, CPFR demand forecasts and orders predictable business processes are constructed, and supply system cost model, as well as the entire supply system level of service are researched. Thirdly, from a practical application point of the supply system, CPFR demand forecasts and orders predictable business processes are designed, to provide reference for such a prediction methods and the practical application of the cost model. Finally, examples of VBA programming show that the use of exponentially weighted quantile regression forecast model, to avoid demand forecasting model assumptions, and projections of continuing updates, significantly reduce CPFR total system cost and the service level of this system.The study of collaborative forecasting and replenishment strategy in CPFR supply system is focused in this paper. The findings obtained for the CPFR application not only provides a theoretical basis and practical basis, but also provides a new way of thinking for enterprises to implement CPFR strategy.