Research On Collaborative Demand Forecasting And Implementation Based On The Supply Network

Economic globalization tide has made enterprises enhance competitivenessthrough focusing on coordinating and sharing supply network resources. As theforefront of the business operation, the accuracy and authenticity of the demandforecast data is a lean source of all production and sales activities of the enterprise.How to take advantage of the resources in supply network, and collaborativelyconducting demand forecast is one of the hot issues in today’s research. So far, thecollaborative demand forecast also stay at the level of theory and methods, even lessin achieving.This paper based on the qualitative and quantitative research methods and supplychain management, through analysis and conclusion, puts forward initial collaborativedemand forecasting model. Then optimizes the model through simulation, andestablishes simply incentive and restraint mechanisms on promoting resource sharing.The research content is the following issues:In the first chapter, the research state of supply network management and demandforecasting theory has been reviewed, and analyze the need of the research. At last,give the framework of the thesis.The second chapter first analyzed and concluded the characteristics of supplynetwork, focused on the theory and methods of demand forecasting, finally illustratedthe paper’s research object.The third chapter analyzed the complexity of collaborative demand forecastingand the key factor of forecasting, put forward using income distribution mechanismand plus demerit point mechanism to facilitate information sharing. Focus on studyingcollaborative demand forecasting’s theory system structure and its preliminary model,giving a detailed analysis on the quantification of qualitative index and quantitative forecast combination.The forth chapter mainly in conjunction with the third chapter of predictionmethods and support mechanisms, simulated the example of fast moving consumergoods using forecasting method. Then improve and optimize the collaborativedemand forecasting model.The fifth chapter analyzed enterprise’s actual situation, put forward theapplication frame of collaborative demand forecasting system based on the existingproblems. Then show some system functions.In the sixth chapter, the total research works of this dissertation were summarized,and further researches are prospected.