Research On The Way Of CPFR To Prevent Bullwhip Effect Under Imperfect Advance Demand Information

Nowadays, the globalization is a trend of the world. More and more companies now face the problem that they could not finish all the procedure from the product design, production, sales and the logistics in their own organization. So the supply chain comes out. Now competition has been transferred from traditional competition among enterprises to competition among supply chains. With the convenience of promptly changed modern technology, consumers face more and more preference and demands. In order to adapt the prompt changing consumers'preference and demands, enterprises always have to change their product promptly and frequently. In the consumer to the material supplier supply chain, every supply chain member face the big amplification problem, Bullwhip Effect, which means that in every echelon of supply chain the fluctuation of customers'actual demand is less than the fluctuation of suppliers'stock. This amplification will bring great negative effect to the supply chain. Now many Chinese manufacturers suffered seriously from the Bullwhip Effect. Because now many Chinese manufacturers are the OEM manufacturer of world brand owner, CPFR, a completely new thought of the supply chain management, can bring great benefit to our Chinese manufacturer.This paper analyzed the reason of why the Bullwhip Effect exists and discussed the latest way of reducing the Bullwhip Effect nowadays. It focused on the core part of the CPFR, Collaborative Forecast, and used it to reduce the Bullwhip Effect at the condition of the imperfect Advance Demand Information.The paper was divided in five parts:(1) The first chapter introduced the research background of this thesis, and expounded the current foreign & domestic research on Bullwhip effect and introduced the way of study of this thesis.(2) The second chapter discussed the relevant theory of the CPFR, such as the theory of supply chain management, the Bullwhip Effect and the notation of the Collaborative Planning, Forecast and the Replenishment (CPFR) from the supply chain perspective.(3) The third chapter discussed the current main theory of forecasting and inventory management.(4) The fourth chapter analysis the problem of the collaborative forecast under perfect advance demand information and imperfect advance demand information and prove that collaborative forecasting under imperfect advance demand information will greatly help in reducing the Bullwhip Effect.(5) In the chapter five, we summed up and prospect the research of this thesis, and put forward the deficiency of this thesis and research direction in future.The innovation of this papers is that the current research on the Bullwhip Effect does not involve in the collaborative forecasting under the imperfect advance demand information( ADI), this paper discuss the collaboration of forecasting under imperfect advance demand information at the echelon point of supply chain, and proved that collaborative forecasting will greatly help in reducing the Bullwhip Effect.