Shangluo City Of Global Change Fitness Evaluation

Shangluo is one of the very important city in the Qinling Mountains. Election Shangluo as researching object, this paper is based on Statistical Yearbook data, using mathematical analysis, mathematical model and sustainable development principles and methods to adapt to global changes in the degree by constructing the index system and making the selection of indicators Treatment of global change Shangluo Calculation and evaluation of fitness, this article has been to adapt to global change on the degree of Shangluo some conclusions.The use of mathematical and statistical analysis method Shangluo City Composite Index to 2009, 1969 and 1999, meteorological data and 2008 economic and social information processing. The results showed that the annual average precipitation Shangluo is 736.98mm,41 years, no large changes in precipitation trends. On the degree of dispersion in terms of seasonal rainfall in the previous twenty years, its degree of dispersion is basically in the more stable the process of change, and in the last ten years, appeared in the dispersion changes in fluctuating form Presents one last look, one high and one low phenomenon. To the temperature side, the average annual temperature showed increasing tendency, especially before and after 1994, the most significant warming, with the precipitation dispersion show the basic consistency. Dispersion value of the seasonal temperature was gradually decreased, indicating that temperature in recent years, uneven distribution of the season, that is colder in winter or summer is hotter, so the weather is more likely frequent natural disasters. Recent years the analysis of socio-economic data, the conclusions are:the population subsystem, increasing population density, and preached the natural growth rate of population decline, the population natural growth rate is low but the population Total increasingly also large. Economic subsystem, the per capita GDP rising trend year by year, indicating the total economy is rising year by year; the proportion of primary industry was the overall downward trend is, but that the first adaptation to global change industry is declining; The proportion of secondary industry is the trend was rising year by year, but that the second adaptation to global change industry is declining; the proportion of tertiary industry is declining year by year, and that its adaptation to global change is the decline in; General speaking, most factors in the economic subsystem, adaptation to global change are adversely affected. Social subsystem, urban construction spending and total investment in environmental pollution is increasing year by year, and its fitness for positive global change impact is widening year by year; but the cultivated area is declining, it can lead to social subsystem Changes in the overall global decline in fitness. To the disaster situation, the past decade, the situation is fluctuating, and there is no obvious trend of larger or smaller.Will Shangluo city fitness evaluation of global change into the target layer, rule layer and index layer composed of three levels of system, the use of AHP analysis, the evaluation factors to determine the weight values. In a comprehensive evaluation of the subsystem, the climate subsystems, the population subsystem, the economic subsystem, social subsystem, and the weight of the affected cases were 0.3309,0.1816,0.2047,0.1611,0.1217. This description, climate subsystems and subsystems to the global changes in the economic importance of fitness is relatively large, population and social subsystem and the situation on the global changes affected the importance of fitness is relatively small. Comprehensive evaluation index in the second, through the analysis shows that indicators of population density, per capita GDP index, total investment in environmental pollution indicators, and indicators of economic losses affected the fitness of the importance of global change is relatively large.Fitness is a global change environment and social development of a comprehensive quantitative measure of expression. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to determine the Shangluo City Global Change 1999 to 2008 the ranking of fitness, analysis found:On the whole, is a global change Shangluo fitness value is generally decreasing year by year. Sub-term, from 1999 to 2001, global change Shangluo City fitness is at a high level; from 2002 to 2006, global change has been in the fitness value of the general level, and The value is the year goes on with the declining; to 2007, the value of global change on the fitness level down to the weak; 2008, despite a higher level of value, but the whole, the global change Shangluo City Fitness is a gradual weakening trend. Can be said that the current and the subsystem Shangluo City adaptation to global change are still at a low level.