| Heuristic probability estimate is one of the popular issue of natural reasoning in foreign psychological research currently. Heuristic probability estimate in uncertain condition is the important part of natural reasoning. Because of the traits of empiric and intentionality, most research on heuristic is limited to the form of theoretical hypothesis. As a transform of natural reasoning, subjective probability estimate, as long as heuristic become the new study point of heuristic probability estimate. Thus, the study paradigm of heuristic probability estimate combine heuristic theoretical hypothesis with probability estimate, so to further explore the mechanism of heuristic probability estimate especially, heuristic probability estimate break the shortcoming of traditional reasoning study which has formal logic as material and evaluation criterion, and the study emphasis has turned to probability itself in pragmatic thinking activity.Study on effect of feedback on probability estimate can well reveal how the feedback interfere with each link of heuristic, thus precisely grasp the psychological mechanism of heuristic bias. We designed several feedback conditions from the presentation order and questioning type of probability task and used two factor analysis experiments to measure the change of bias in such feedback condition: Experiment 1 was to verity the effect of order in form of presentation and feedback on probability estimate; Experiment 2 was to verify the effect of questioning type and feedback on probability estimate. The results are as follows:1. Feedback can promote the inner process of heuristic probability estimate. To the different probability question presentation style, the effect of feedback's regulation is different. The estimate effect in frequency presentation style is better than in special cases presentation style.2. Since frequency and special cases belong to the two presentation styles of probability, they arose two kinds of thinking respectively. That is distribution thinking and single thinking which can not effect each other in heuristic probability estimate, even though in a condition of feedback.3. While the content of probability question is varied, heuristic probability estimate is familiar to be changed by some factors, such asabstract level of availability, difficulty of availability and characteristic of thinking. If non-instructional feedback can not provide the available probability estimating cues for these factors in various heuristic, it will lead a limited effect in correcting the bias.4. Feedback's decreasing the bias of probability estimate is conditional. The conditions include the property of feedback itself. To heuristic, the feedback's effect is limited only to some link, correcting the bias to some degree by improving some link. Otherwise, the change of conditions can also sometimes limit such positive effect of feedback. |
