| Stock market plays a more and more important role in the modern economic society as a way to the distribution of resource. The fluctuation of stock market reflects the change of real economy and affects the latter at the same time. The effects mainly include the Q effect, asymmetric information effect, fortune effect and the liquidity effect etc. The thesis studies the fortune effect only.The fortune effect of stock market is divided into " positive fortune effect" and "negative fortune effect" according to the influence to real economy. The positive fortune effect is a phenomenon that the raise of stock price increases the fortune of shareholders and leads to the growth of consumption, while the shareholders will lose fortune because of the decline of price, which is called the negative fortune effect and there are some direct relation between the rupture of stock market foam and the negative fortune effect.The discussion on fortune effect of stock market began in America, and in the period of 1990 to 2000, the stock market has kept boom in a long run. As a result, it was very evident that the consumption promoted by the raise of stock price. So we discuss the positive fortune effect of stock market on America.However, since the later period of 1980s , economy condition trapped the downturn and had no any evidence to boom in Japan. In some degree, the foam economy led by the rupture of stock market foam played an important role in the process, and the collapse of foam economy produced a very bad influence to Japan economy. So, we make Japan as an example to analyze the negative fortune effect of stock market.On the base of analysis to the positive and negative fortune effect of stock market, the thesis deeply discusses the fortune effect of China stock market, which begins with a model of across periods and through the fashion of demonstration. The result of analysis shows that the fortune effect of stock market is not prominent in China. This point corresponds with the basic viewpoint of a lot of scholars in China. Lastly, the thesis explains the result from the system angle and provides some Suggestion of policy.The thesis is made of four parts.The first part explains theoretically the fortune effect of stock market, at the same time, it points the mechanism of positive and negative fortune of sock market. The second part studies the positive fortune effect and shows the dualism of America fortune effect of stock market. The third part discusses the negative fortune effect and deeply analyzes the phenomenon viewed the defect of finance system in Japan. The fourth part discusses fortune effect in China and draws a conclusion that the effect is not prominent ,and then gives an explanation.The thesis draws some conclusions as follows:1. Since 1990s,promoted by the high techno'cyy and knowledge economy, the fortune effect is positive in stock market in America. Along the rupture of stock foam, the fortune effect is not as prominent as before, which results from the fictitious economy such as stock market itself. It will be able to reach a new equilibrium through the power of damage, if the basement of real economy is strong enough.2. Japan began to trap the downturn of foam economy since the later period of 1980s and the phenomenon of stock foam was so serious that the negative fortune effect appeared. There are close relationship between the phenomenon and the economic regulation of Japan government, which shows the radical difference to America situation.3. The analysis of demonstration shows that the fortune effect of stock market is not prominent in China. The imperfection of legal system and the monitor of regulation lead the result in exterior. However, we can find that the defect of system (the internal and external flaw) is the deeper reason. The thesis provides a suggestion of policy as sells some state owned asset... |
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