| There are four parts in this research, they are:(1) Basic theory on regional Economy-Logistics forecast system, including the mutual affect and effluence between regional economy and regional logistics, regional logistics demand analysis, and the logistics demand increasing mechanism driven by economy(2) Regional logistics demand forecast index system. This part includes statistical situation of logistics industry in China, the principle of selecting indices, regional logistics forecast index system and the evaluation(3) Modeling the regional logistics demand forecast(4) Experimental research on regional logistics demand forecast. And then makes some advices for Shanghai city government on the logistics plan and programming.This research focuses on the regional logistics demand forecast comprehensively by using the methodologies of combination of theory and demonstration, qualitative forecast method and quantitative forecast method. The intrinsic attribute of regional logistics demand is revealed by forecasting logisgics demand by using regional economy indices.The important conclusion can be drawn from this research is that there is a significant correlation between regional economy and regional logistics demand, so regional logistics demand can be forecasted accurately by using the economy level. From the aspect of theory, an intrinsic logic relationship exsits between regional economy and regional logisitics demand, and it is this relationship that decide the regional logisitics demand can be forested by economy indices. |
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