Listed Company's Credit Risk Assessment Model And Its Empirical Research

It is a very complicated system engineering to assess the credit risks of listed coinpany or enterprises. Many special credit risks appraisal agencies carry on overall credit risks grading of the company or enterprises in abroad, for instance, famous Moody credit rating Company, Standard and Poor company. These appraisal agencies mainly consider commercial competition situation and financial situation of the company or enterprise when they evaluate the credit risk assessment. For example, Standard and Poor Company think that they could provide the credit grades of enterprises accurately only if they consider the two respects of enterprise's business risk and the situations of financial risk synthetically. To analyze the industry and management risk, Standard and Poor company think that the focal points assessed are in industry risk, diversification and scale, and management performance. About evaluating enterprise' s financial risk, Standard and Poor Company especially assess the earning capacity of the enterprise, the financial lever and cash flow. Some credit risks appraisal agencies of our country put forward the credit risk evaluation systems that suits the enterprises of our country in reference to the experience of the foreign credit risks appraisal agencies. The systems evaluate the credit risk of one company from three aspects, the assessment of the quality of enterprise, the financial assessment of enterprises, and the assessment of the newly- -built project.The paper has introduced the definition and classification of the credit risks at first. Then, the paper has reviewed the developing history of domestic and international credit risks assessing and management. It introduced the credit risk assessment model at each decade of the developing of the credit risk simply and introduced the important classical model at detail. After reviewing the developing history of riskmanagement of credit, according to the condition of the credit risk assessment and the credit risk management of listed company in our country, it selected 208 annual financial statement of 208 listed company in 2003 as the sample studying. Then through the Fisher of differentiated analytic approach and the Logistic return to analytic approach in the SPSS statistical analytic software, it set up a new model that based on financial statement to assess the credit risks of listed company in our country. Positive researches indicated that the prediction correct rate of sample is satisfied.