Commercial Banks In Real Estate Development Loan Risk Analysis And Prevention

The guiding ideology of developing the real estate market in the future has pointed out in the fifteen program of the development of residence and real estate: grasping the historical opportunity that our country will build the well-off society in an all-round way and implement the strategy of urbanism, accelerate the development of the real estate taking resident's house as focal point…finally realize the improvement of inhabited level and environmental quality of both urban and rural residents, eventually reach the harmonious development of the economy and the society. Evidently the healthy continuous development of the industry of real estate is very important . The real estate trade is a pillar industry which concerns the national economy and the people's livelihood. It is one of the important ways in stimulating internal need, promoting economic growth and improving people's living standard in recent years. The real estate trade is a high risk trade because of its long investment period and its own cyclical fluctuations. It is a trade getting high output from great investment to real estate developer ,but a trade that has high risk of loan pay back. This kind of high risk accompanies the whole course and embodies in every aspect of the development of real estate. The loan business of real estate is also a key business to each commercial bank and this business has important meaning for promoting the development of real estate to raise operation effectiveness. But now the worse tendency of increasing commercial bank loan bad ratio of real estate development strongly influences not only overall bank assets quality, but also the development of the entire industry of real estate directly, even the financial system and the steady healthy economic development of entire country . So, it has very important meaning to analyze and take precautions against the real estate development commercial loan risk. From this angle, this text makes very detailed analysis of the origin cause of the loan risk of real estate development of commercial bank, and provides the management countermeasures and suggestions in order to take precautions against of different risks. This research is to select in real estate CHENGDU area for example to analyze the present commercial bank loan of real estate development, especially the problem and the condition of rising bad loan ratio. First, starting with the abortive cases of the bank development loan of real estate, it makes analysis of the failing causes, and puts forward corresponding suggestions keep away from this kind of risk. Then this research divides risk analysis of development of real estate of loan into reverse choice effect analysis at previous stage and morals risk analysis at stage afterwards. According to the different time and origin that the risk produces in the process of the real estate development, it used the game theory of information economics stage by stage to analyze the total risk of development of real estate loan in details.At last, it not only further puts forward some useful and relevant corresponding suggestions and management countermeasures about preventing the commercial bank loan risk of real estate development with the help of absorbing experience of advanced risk management from international banks, but also carry out detailed analysis for many successful loan cases of real estate development to get some useful experience. The main innovation of this research is that its methods of analyzing differ from other general research from difference angle.It attempts to rise from the traditional analysis mode in summary of experience to the academic analysis mode which can instruct practice, and combines asymmetrical information theory with incomplete information game theory to analyze the reason of the commercial bank loan risk of real estate development systematically from both positivism perspective and interpretive paradigm. Last, this research puts some corresponding suggestion and management countermeasures through system and technology design with the help of absorbing experience for international advanced management of risk. In a word, this dissertation is experienced from my working in the field of bank loan for many years, with the relative knowledge of my EMBA program and tries to analyze and make some research in real estate exploit loan of commercial banks. The aim of this paper is combining theories and realities in order to decrease the possible...