A Study On The Impact Of Population Aging On Economic Growth In Yunnan Province

Population aging is the change of population’s age structure and the inevitable outcome of the development of social economy development. Population aging is the21 st century major realistic problem faced by the human society, concerning the development of society, involves the social economy, family. The development of human beings have to undergo aging stage.the stage and form are vary from different regions.In yunnan province, on the basis of the relevant data,we use the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, theory and empirical analysis method of combining the population aging to analyze related effects on regional economic growth. First of all, an ageing population influencing the effective labor supply has corresponding economic effects on regional economic development. According to the theory of economic growth, on the one hand, an aging population through the labor supply of school-age population scale and effects on regional economic development;On the other hand, the improvement of quality of population ageing through effective labor itself, and human capital accumulation and technology progress and capital deepening influences regional economic output. Therefore, the impacts of an ageing population on the regional economic development depending on effective labor supply. Secondly, an ageing population influences the savings and investment. In general, a society of elderly population increase is not conducive to savings. On the one hand, an aging population increase the number of elderly population as a pure consumer.The increase of aging population will increase the social total consumption,reducing the total savings. On the other hand, due to the existence of social security which will also reduce their willing and necessity to save for the later life. In a closed economy, saving is equal to the investment, the corresponding investment can also be reduced, which will not be conducive to economic growth. Finally, an ageing population through influencing consumption, thus impacts on economic growth.Population aging increase the number of elderly population as a pure consumer. Fromthe macroscopic view, an increase in the number of elderly population will lead to rise of the total social demand for consumption, thus increase the total consumption burden of society; And in some cases, the aging of the population age structure will lead to lower levels of per capita consumption funds, reduce the per capita consumption level. But the increase of aging population will also lead to the increasing aging industry related, and has a positive effect on economic growth.On the basis of solow neoclassical growth model,we join the aging factors, and theoretically explore the effect of an ageing population factors on economic growth,the population aging impacting on regional economic development has double effects,the positive and negative effects, its ultimate effects on economic growth according to the actual situation.Using the historical GDP data of yunnan province,the comprehensive effect is positive, the impacts of population aging on economic growth is positive in yunnan province at present.On the basis of above analysis, the population aging impact on regional economic output has the short-term and long-term influence. Application analysis of the data from 1993 to 2013 in yunnan province, find that in the long term, the elderly population and GDP growth are the cointegration.They have a stable equilibrium relationship in the long-term. Error correction model(ECM) shows an ageing population have a short-term impact on economic output : the 7.7% deviation of actual annual economic output from its long-run equilibrium value will be revised in the short run. All in all, an ageing population have a extensive and profound impact on regional economic development, its impact on economic growth will be more obvious in the long term. In essence, an aging population is not the decisive factor of economic development, but it has a certain degree on regional economic development.Considering the impact of ageing population on economic growth, the yunnan province should take the following measures: one is to speed up the economic development, only the rapid development of economy can fundamentally solve the problems brought by aging population. The second is to accelerate the construction ofthe old age security system,the old age social security system is not only an important part of the social security system,but also is the engineering of economic system.Therefore, the population aging has a compact relationship with economic development,the building of old-age security problem is playing an important role in solving the problems. Finally, we should develop the aging industry, guide and support the development of aging industry on the policy.The development of aging industry will be the new momentum for economic growth in the future.