Statistical Analysis For Population Growth And Aging In Fujian Province

Population problem has always been a fundamental,overall and strategic problem faced by human society.Population aging,which has restricted the socioeconomic development in some degree,is one of the most prominent problems in population growth since the 21 st century.In this thesis,the population in Fujian province becomes the research object,and the relationship between the quantity of population,population quality,population structure and aging are focused.It is of certain significance to effectively deal with and solve the aging problem and to promote the sustainable development of the social economy in Fujian province.At first in this paper,the research backgrounds,such as the research significance,the relevant literature and the research methods and ideas about population growth and aging,are summarized systematically.By making descriptive statistical analysis on the quantity,quality,structure and aging of the population in Fujian,it is gotten preliminary that the total population is growing at a low speed,the quality of the population is steadily rising,the speed of aging is accelerating,the gender ratio of the elderly is greatly different between men and women,and the burden of providing for the aged is increasing.Secondly,the non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test is used to test the regional differences of population growth and aging status in the five regions of Fujian Province.The results show that there is no significant difference between Sanming City in Western Fujian and Putian City in central Fujian,Xiamen City in southern Fujian and Fujian Province on population growth and aging status.Furthermore,the stepwise regression model and Lasso regression model are used to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the influencing factors of aging from the point of view of statistics and machine learning,which screens out four significant correlative variables.In these two models,the mortality rate has a significant positive correlation with population aging,and the net migration rate of population and the ratio of employment in the secondary industry have significant negative correlation with aging.Comparing with the fitting effect of the two models,it is found that thefitting degree of stepwise regression model is higher than Lasso regression model.Finally,Holt index smoothing prediction model is used to forecast and analyze the number of permanent residents in Fujian Province and various regions,and the prediction shows that the total permanent population of Fujian Province will exceed42 million in 2027.The age dynamic prediction method is used to predict the number of elderly people aged 65 years and above,and the corresponding aging coefficient of Fujian Province.The results show that the aging of Fujian Province will accelerating in the next 5 years.According to the analysis results,this paper proposes a reference suggestion to deal with the problem of aging.