Study On The Influence Of Aging Population On Economic Growth In China

Population ageing is a major social problem facing China,the population factor is one of the important factors that affect economic development,rapid aging will on labor supply,technology progress,consumption and savings,human capital and social old-age security have a major impact,and significant impact on economic and social development.Now,the 21st century is a century of deepening population aging.One of the hot issues that the world is paying attention to is the aging of the population.While China is a populous country for a long time,the aging of the problem is more profound,and with other major developed countries,China is in the economy is not developed,under the condition of material conditions is not abundant entered an aging society in advance.In this context,it is necessary to study the impact of aging on economic growth.First of all,this paper briefly introduces the related concepts and theoretical basis,and summarizes the relevant research literature of scholars both at home and abroad.You can see that the foreign scholars abroad earlier research on aging of the population,focus on the impact of population aging of population structure change and its influence on the development of the economy,how to safeguard the rights and interests of older people and ageing and how to combined with industry to develop endowment industry.The aging of foreign countries,especially in developed countries,has some implications for China's future handling of relevant problem.Most domestic scholars papers in national macro research status and the research combined with the actual state of the regional differences,economic development level difference,cultural difference under the condition of population aging influence on economic development,this article mainly from the negative impact,positive impact,affecting uncertainty of the domestic scholars views were summarized.Then,in this paper,based on this,this paper briefly introduces the development process of China's aging population,the present situation,characteristics and trends,can be realized,our country entered the aging society in 2000,nearly 10 years aging speed,ageing is inevitable.The current population aging in our country present large scale,high speed,old before rich,regional imbalance,the future aging further wait for a characteristic,and on social production,social security and the family,the economic industrial structure influence.Secondly,based on the above content through labor,savings and investment,human capital briefly mechanism analysis in three aspects,and the economic growth of the traditional model of missile model was improved,introducing variable population aging factors among them,build a new model,it is concluded that the new steady state equation.On this basis,the effects of aging on economic growth are explored from three perspectives:economic balance growth path,total output effect and labor consumption effect.According to theoretical analysis,aging has a two-way effect on the steady-state growth level.Then,based on the theoretical model on the basis of the collected from 1997 to 2015 the country 30 provinces(except Tibet autonomous region)of provincial panel data,in order to establish a real GDP per capita as interpreted variable data econometric analysis model,the empirical analysis,through a series of econometric analysis method to study how the ageing impact on economic growth,and what effect will be.The explanatory variables of the model include:old-age dependency ratio,labor ratio,human capital level,technological progress,total population dependency ratio,per capita savings rate,urbanization rate.Through a series of measurement tests,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)the proportion of total population dependency has a significant negative impact on economic growth,while the elderly dependency ratio has a positive impact on economic growth.The reason is that an ageing population increases in the working-age population declined relative to population,population bring-up ratio,reduced the labor resources,increase the economic burden of the working age population,have a significant negative impact on economic growth.And the empirical results of this paper is elderly dependency ratio has a positive influence on economic growth,its reason on the one hand is the aging caused by the high savings rate,on the other hand is the old age of human capital accumulation.And low degree of aging in our country,the "demographic dividend" will continue until around 2030,Labour supply relatively sufficient,the social overall burden of raising pressure is not big,the negative impact of population aging is not fully revealed.(2)technological progress,human capital level,urbanization rate,savings rate,and labor force ratio all have a positive impact on economic growth.The above conclusions are consistent with reality.Because technology progress to improve the efficiency of resource use,and promote the improvement of labor productivity,rich human capital and labor resources and higher urbanization rate can make full use of material,technology,capital,and the development of the economy.(3)there are significant differences in the population aging regions in China,in the east,middle and west regions,and there are obvious differences in the effects of explanatory variables on economic growth.This is because the aging degree of the eastern region was obviously higher than that of the central and western regions,and the eastern,central and western economic development level,urbanization rate,level of human capital and labor resources have greatly different.Finally,according to the results of theoretical and empirical analysis,this paper research conclusion and combined with the reality of our country put forward the corresponding policy recommendations,hope the research results can play a corresponding role in the social practice.