The Development Characteristics And Population Forecast Of Population Aging In Guizhou Province

Abstract:Guizhou Province entered the aging society in2003,and in the next tenyears the aging process was developing rapidly. Proportion of population aged65andover of Guizhou Province increased3.37%per year from1990to2000and4.16%peryear from2000to2010.In2013,there are338.51million population aged65and overamong the province’s resident population,9.66%of the total population and0.56percentage points higher than last year.This paper has mainly divided into four parts,they are theory of aging, agingcharacteristics of Guizhou Province, forecast of total population and demographic ofGuizhou, policy recommendations. This paper adopts the fifth,the sixth census dataand the1%population sample data in2005of Guizhou,finds the uniquecharacteristics of aging people of Guizhou and mainly analysis eight factors that causethe regional differences by Grey Relational Analysis Method and take Zunyi as anexample.Then forcast the total population and demographic trends in next40years ofGuizhou by PROJCT mordel of Mortpak.The main innovation:discuss eight factors that influence the regional differences ofaging people of Guizhou by grey relation analysis,which has not yet been involved byprevious studies on the aging population of Guizhou.Using PROJCT model ofMORTPAK to the prediction of provincial population,which has a certain reference towiden our population forecast approach.The main results:Guizhou Province has its unique aging characters,including largeproportion of the rural empty nesters,large number of population aged80and over,low literacy level of the elder and obvious regional differences of aging. The mainfactor that causes Guizhou’s regional differences in the aging population is differentdemographic factors,then is the different level of economic development and last isthe process of social development.As to Zunyi,the order is the process of socialdevelopment,demographic factors and different level of economic development.According to the PROJCT model,in the next40years,the total population of GuizhouProvince will increase slowly first and then decrease slightly,the proportion ofchildren will decline progressively,the proportion of working-age population willincrease before2020and decrease after2025,the proportion of the elder populationwill rise continuously.Viewing the demographic structure,the population pyramid ofGuizhou Province in2010and2020are similar to the growth structure,butworking-age population is fewer and the number of children is larger relatively,the population pyramid begin to transit to the stable structure from2030and in2050itis similar to the stable structure,but there are some significant differences comparedwith the basic type,such as the larger proportion of the elder,the larger proportion ofpopulation with advanced age,the fewer proportion of children and working–agepopulation.Guizhou will face more aging stress and more problems caused by thepopulation with advanced age.In future,Guizhou should take the following works toresponse to the aging population,firstly, focus on technological development,economic restructuring and industrial upgrading to attract workforce inflows;secondly,establish and improve the existing pension system and try to achieve full coverage ofold-age security in rural areas gradually;thirdly,improve the cultural level of the elderand enrich their spiritual life.