Study On The Aging Trend Of Guizhou Province Based On Multi - Regional Discrete Population Development Equation

In the21st century with the advent of the global population aging, agingpopulation gradually becomes the common problem for various countries to face.Although, the aging of the population development level of Guizhou province isbelow the national average, but its development speed is basically consistent with thenational’s. As the aging of the population continued to develop in Guizhou province,now the province has entered the fast development phase, and the phenomenon ofempty nest family gradually is intensified. As a less developed areas in economy,coupled with weak economic foundation and starting point, accelerated populationaging process will bring heavier pressure to the economic development of Guizhouprovince.On the basis of Guizhou province in the fifth, sixth census about birth, death,migration and other related data, considering the "separate two children" policy’sinfluence on provincial rural total fertility rate in the future, this article set up threeoptions for the rural total fertility rate and the total fertility rate of Guizhou provincesince2011after90years:(1) low fertility scheme: assume that in Guizhou province the current familyplanning policy remains unchanged, the implementation of the family planning policyin the countryside will be perfected, and the willingness of people to breed to drop,the total fertility rate will decline since2011after90years.(2) medium fertility scheme: assume that in Guizhou province the current familyplanning policy will be moderately relaxed, and the "separate two children" policywill carry out, however, due to high cost of raising children and so on, the willingnessof people to breed increases slowly，so the total fertility rate will also increases slowlysince2011after90years.(3) high fertility scheme: assume that in Guizhou province the current familyplanning policy will be relaxed, the "separate two children" policy will carry out, andthe willingness of people to breed also increase.On the other hand, analyze and assume the model of the rural population flowingto urban, and then, based on multiple regional discrete population developmentequation to predict the province’s population size and structure points age in urbanand rural areas for2011to2100. Simulation results show that, within this period, theaging trend of development of the province can be roughly divided into four stages: the first phase of2011and2023, rising fast; the second phase of2024and2037,accelerating; the third stage for2038to2061, slowly rising; the fourth stage for the2062to2062, the more slowly rising to basically remain unchanged. Between2011and2100, the province will always be associated with aging, and successively stepinto depth even super aging society, it is inevitable. During that time, aging populationis the fastest rising from2024to2037, will also remain high elderly population from2038to2061with peaking in2043, and between2062and2100, falling fast. On theother hand, compared with the high and low scheme, the medium scheme offers areasonable age structure, effectively control population quantity, and overcomes theshortcomings of the high and the low scheme, so it is relatively suitable for currentand future population development in Guizhou province.