A Study On The Policy Change Of "One Child" Policy To The "Second Child" Policy From The Perspective Of Alliance Framework

In the process of social and economic development, people as the main body of economic activities, is always influenced by social factors. The influence of a country’s population policy is very important in many social factors. The "one child" policy is the greatest influence to our country. In the early 80 s, China’s "one-child policy" to control the population family planning policy was implemented, and got good effect. However, more than 30 years later, population structure and the main contradiction has changed in the field of population policy. Population is not growing too fast, but the low fertility level, population aging intensifies, the newborn sex ratio and so on practical problems. Now, adjusting the “one child policy” is to deal with the aging situation in the future and to get the demographic dividend again. The fundamental purpose is for the sake of the healthy and stable development of economy and for the realization of people’s fundamental interests.The Communist Party of China looks far ahead and aims high. On November 9, 2013, the third plenary session of 18 Passed "the central committee of the communist party of China on some major problems comprehensively deepen reform decision". It offered to adhere to the basic state policy of family planning and one party who is only children couples can have two children. This marked that the "separate two children" policy will be officially implemented and also indicated that the implementation of more than 30 years of family planning policy will be changed. Eighteen the fifth plenary session of the communist party of China was held in Beijing on November 29, 2015. The meeting proposed "promote the balanced development of population, adhere to the basic state policy of family planning, perfect the population development strategy, fully implement a couple can have two child policy, and actively cope with population aging action".Under the background of an ageing population increase and labor reduce, the adjustment of the policy is complied with the common demand to have two children, also helps to improve the structure of population. In the face of major changes of the public policy, how to carry on the reasonable explanation? What is the power of this change? What are the factors that affect the change of policy? What’s the inspiration for the future policy changes? This is not only the concern of the scholars and key problem to study in this paper.For decades, policy change research, this paper argues that an appropriate theoretical explanation is that the advocacy coalition framework theory. The theory was created in 1988; the main content is to the attention of a policy issue for a long time, by studying the over ten years and even decades of policy changes. There are important stakeholders in the process of policy change, who are the earliest policy supporters and opponents. And gradually forms two opposing policy alliance in the competition. Two rival alliances understand each other, learn, compromise, and finally eventually form policy in the process of policy change. Each policy stakeholders to union, however, is a complicated process. This process not only has external conditions and internal factors, but also both learning, understanding and growth of the union itself. There are also policy agents, professional BBS, internal shock playing an important role in it. Study of policy guiding and policy advocacy coalition in the subsystem, which will produce important influence on the specific policy, is also very valuable for a national policy change research.Because of this, policy advocacy coalition theory has been applied abroad in many fields of policy analysis, to analyze policy changes, and to understand how public policy formation. At the same time, what gets in the policy practice policy rise to the new theory, so as to guide the public policy develop in a direction favorable to the public. Also, we noticed that there also exist such support alliance and the opposition alliance in the subsystem of the family planning policy. There is competition, understand, learning, and compromise between them. And also they are affected and impacted from the internal and external factors in the process of policy formation.Use the theory to observe the changes of China’s family planning policy in the past 30 years, especially the change process from the "one child" policy to "two-child" policy. In fact, on the other hand, it is helpful for us to understand, explain and comb the process of policy change; Studying the theory, on the other hand, can also go to guide China’s interest parties to participate and to promote policies toward the good direction. This paper is to analyze the "one child" policy to "two-child" policy shift process conditions, including two big unions of opposites, the opposing side’s belief system. It also can be affected from the external and internal factors in the process of policy changes, including relatively stable variables, external dynamic events, the role of internal shocks and policy agent. Two opposing alliance study policy that is oriented in the secondary aspect of belief system. Eventually learn from each other, understand, grow, compromise, and form the "two-child" policy. This is also the most valuable part in this paper.However, we also noticed that China’s public policy environment is different from western countries. Therefore, this paper draws on the theory and combined with the specific policy environment in our country, and analysis the principle of China’s family planning policy changes on the premise of its applicability. And shall take measures, at the same time, predict the future development. The future policy of family planning policy in the two big union studies will be some changes.This is because although support league victory, but it is also the result of the two major leagues learning from each other. This is because although support league wins, it is also the result of the two major league learning from each other. Opposition alliance will not change their beliefs, temporarily when external conditions involved in it. Two major league strength changes again, this time when the family planning policy will be fine-tuning. However, this process is a dynamic, long. It could be over ten years or even longer period of policy.