Games Track And Field Results Change And Development Trend Analysis And Forecast

To analysis and project the Asian Games athletics performance trend,results reveal changes of formation and phase characteristics.For our government exploring and using,as a decision-making planning and policy formulation,it is very important for arranging the training plan and competitions. The authors used literature,comparative analysis,and mathematical statistics,dynamic analysis and forecast of grey on the research methods,from the 1st to the 15^th Asian Games track and field goals before three accomplishments,fiom the 11^th to the 15^th Asian Games China's track and field the best statistics and analysis.The results and conclusions of our track and field athletes will participate in the 16^th Asian Games in Guangzhou forecast results providing a theoretical reference.The results and conclusions are as follows:1.Asian Games athletics results overall trend is the development of the more obvious stage three features:from 1951 to 1974(1st～6^th Asian Games) substantial improvement phase,from 1978 to 1986(7^th-10^th Asian Games) fluctuations repeatedly stage,from 1990 to 2006(11^th-15^th Asian Games) relatively stable stage.2.Asian Games track and field performance of the certain characteristics:The speed of the group short and cross-project,for Men's 110m Hurdles,Men's 400m Hurdles, Women's 100m Hurdles perfom,ance are improving change trend.The endurance group in the category of long-range projects,Men's 5000m and Men's 3000m Steeplechase improving results in a change in the overall situation,the more relaxed pace of change results Women's 800m,Women's 1500m, Women's 10000m,results in a substantial fluctuations exist.The Ultra-long-range projects,and Men's Marathon,Men's 20kin Race Walk results in a change in the overall trend of decline,due to ultra-long-distance competition in the project,will be the regular venue,environmental and other factors outside interference,but also makes changes in the rate increase results,the future two session, results will not be changed.The strength of the group jumping,from the 1st to the 10^th Asian Games of the negative coefficient shows that the development of the overall development results in rising trend. In addition from the 11^th to the 15^th women's high jump,jumping other development projects results for the coefficient is that in the past five sessions of the achievements of the development of a downward trend,from the previous four Asian Games track and field jumping rhythm changes in the development of the project,results in an early stage of development,the achievements of twists and turns greater performance,contestants,a big gap between the overall level in a smooth and rapid development stage performance gap with athletes gradually tend to narrow.Strength of the group throwing,the last five sessions Asian Games,men's and women's javelin performance coefficient are a positive development,and achievements is the development of the overall trend downward in the declining phase of stagnation.In the Asian Games track and field throwing,with the exception of javelin achievements in the development trend downward trend,the development of other projects results in a volatile situation repeated state integrated all-embracing,men's decathlon project results showed situation continued to improve in the future years,the results still showed a rising trend,while women's heptathion project results in decreased overall trend.3.Study forecast:in the Men's 200m,Men's 20km Race Walk,Men's 110m Hurdles,Men's 400m Hurdles,Men's Triple Jump,Women's Marathon,Women's 100m Hurdles,Women's 400m Hurdles, Women's Shot Put,Women's Discus Throw and other projects are a fairly good performance,which indicates that in the 16^th Asian Games in track and field project our athletes are expected to achieve good performance.