The Research Of The Analysis And Prediction On Track And Field Athletic Performance Trend In National Games

In order to find out the change rule and dynamic development trend of the national athletics that the competitive strength of the every competitive group in the athletics were compared between medals strength,competition results, event groups and projects in the People's Republic of China games (the followings are called simply the National Games).It is hope that the rules can provide some theoretical reference for related department to make decisions, arrange training programs and Competition.The author count and analysed the top 8 performance of each single and average of the top 3 results of the Track and Field Athletic Performance in the National Games of the People's Republic of China that from 5th to 11th. with the literature material law, expert interview, comparative analysis, mathematical statistics, grey prediction method and score natural endowments method and other methods.The research results and conclusions will could provide a theoretical reference for prediction of the 12th National Games. The research conclusions and results are as follows:1. The four competitive group of the National Games athletics sports that has significant differences. In the competition for the medal, the first competitive group stands in the Monopoly posision.The second and third competitive group compete for silver and bronze. The fourth competitive group compete for the bronze medals,but its strength is not strong.2. The competitive strength of the project groups performance In the speed class, fast strength class and endurance class showed more intense competition in the next bit. Both top and bottom bit are competitive in the comprehensive project groups.The competitive strength most stable is Guangdong Province. In the fast strength class project, the competitive strength of Shandong is more stronger than over regions. In the endurance class project, the competitive strength of Liaoning is more stabler. In the integrated class projects,the competitive strength of Zhejiang is more stronger.3. The track and field athletic performance trend in the National Games that has the following characteristics. The sprint and hurdles projects in the speed class:the results increased in a large range from the 5th to 8th National Games,and then showed a steady trend.The jump and throwing projects in the rapid strength class:t The men's pole vault scores increasing range more than other projects from the 8th to 11th National Games. The mid-range and long distance projects in the endurance class:the development trend in the men's mid-range and long distance projects is better than women's. All-around projects in the integrated class:the development trend of men's decathlon projects's results are increasing. Women's heptathlon results show the whole project slow drop tendency.4. To make model and predict the results of track and field projects in the National Games with grey prediction,and then calculate coefficients of men and women track and field results in National Games.It used 5 dimension method that to calculate athletics results's data of the National frack and field base on the GM (1,1) prediction model.And then,it found that the predictive value are closing to the real value after put the 11th National Games's real value compared with the predictive value. Predicted the track and field athletic results of the 12th National Games and other large track and field games.