Research On Development Trend And Prediction Of Athletics Performance In National City Games

To observe China’s track and field reserve talent reserves, further explore athletic talentmovement technical level of our country teenagers may go. Before this study with previousintercity track and field sports of three grades point average as the foundation, adopts aprogressive coefficient method, the development coefficient value analysis methods such asthe development of intercity track and field performance trends, and make the track and fieldevents result from dynamic figure, calm base than dynamic figure. Attempts to probe into thetrend of the development of the our country athletics sports reserve forces, and on the basis ofthe use of three data modeling in the theory of grey prediction method, forecast the8thintercity track and field performance. The results show that:1look from progressive coefficient, the men’s110m hurdles and the women’s100mhurdles record development condition is superior to other projects, but poor stabilitydevelopment, volatile, and the development trend of men’s110m hurdles is superior to thewomen’s100m hurdles. Looked from the overall trend, men speed class project developmenttrend of each different, women’s development trend is consistent, but showed a trend ofdecline gradually; In addition to the men’s110m hurdles, man class project master speedfluctuations are less than woman, and man’s development is generally superior to woman.2from the development coefficient, male and female endurance class project overalldeclining performance. Look from progressive coefficient, the men’s800m projectdevelopment condition is better than the men’s1500m and5000m; Development of thewomen’s800m project is superior to the women’s800m and5000m. Stability is the worstamong them, the men’s1500m project, the stability of the women’s1500m best. Lookedfrom the overall trend, man endurance class projects are showing a downward; Thedevelopment of the women’s1500m project performance worst; The women’s5000mvolatility is larger.3from the progressive coefficient, man in the field events, ball project overalldevelopment situation is better than that of other projects, development of pole vault project isthe worst; Women’s field project, the pole vault and hammer project overall developmentsituation is superior to other projects. Man in field events, in addition to the development ofpole vault and hammer project inferior to woman, the other project development condition issuperior to woman. In terms of progressive coefficient of standard deviation, and thedevelopment situation of men’s long jump is stable; The development of women’s triple jumpis relatively stable. Field events, from the overall trend, intercity skip class the developmentof project performance is relatively stable, less volatile; While throwing performancedevelopment state stability is poorer, volatile, and the woman is throwing project performanceis more obvious. 4look from progressive coefficient, men’s decathlon overall development situation isbetter than woman, good stability and development. Look from the quarter-on-quarter growth,men decathlon scores overall less volatile, and relatively stable development trend; Overalldevelopment trend of women’s heptathlon is "W" type, showing fluctuation is large, poorstability characteristics. Men’s and women’s all-around project grades fluctuated to a certaindegree the development of the trend line are, women drop rate than men.5GM (1.1) three data model modeling method for prediction of City Games track andfield results of the prediction model and the eighth National City Games (or the first NationalYouth Games), tested a high prediction accuracy. Therefore, experience, judgment andcombine predictions, for municipalities, and develop a training plan to provide referencevalues...