An Analysis Of The Relationship Between The Development Of The Tertiary Industry And The Consumption Level Of The Quarters In Qufu City

Qufu is the hometown of Confucius, is the capital city of Lu, is China’s first batch of historical and cultural city, and it is also the first batch of Chinese Excellent Tourism city. It is not only the world famous ancient city of culture, is also a tourist city, so the third industry is the main industry of the city. The consumption level of residents is an important index to measure the living level of residents, to improve the level of the standard of living of the people has the reference significanceIn this paper, use Qufu’s 2008-2014 years third industrial added value and consumption data of urban and rural residents as the research object, value added the relationship between the proportion of GDP, the total retail sales of social consumer goods of urban and rural residents per capita consumption expenditure data were studied.The use of statistical analysis was conducted on the data of Stata and Eviews software, established the linear regression model, an empirical analysis of the time series with a unit root test and cointegration test, the VAR model and Granger causality test, the third industrial added value and total retail of consumer goods has a linear regression relationship, there is a causal relation between them.In addition, in order to test which consumption index of the three increase in the value of a greater impact, the added value of consumption of urban and rural residents and the data was analyzed by principal component analysis of the third industry in 1993-2003 years, through the analysis of indexes of all kinds of consumption rate to increase the value of the contribution to the three industry, the consumption of rural residents is greater than the consumption index the related indicators of urban residents on the added value of three results. Finally, the following suggestions on how to improve the standard of living of the residents in the consumer aspects: one is to continue to develop the third industry; two is to optimize the industrial structure, to further improve the third industry accounted for three; not because of the development of the third industry is the neglect of other industry development, the balanced development of the industry should be on the premise of; four is to improve the living standards of rural residents, to promote the consumption of rural residents.