The Study Of Decoupling Between Energy Consumption And Economic Growth In Yunnan Based On Tapio

Industrialization promotes the rapid development of social economy into a new stage,it consumed a large amount of energy and resources in the process of social development,the energy consumption caused environmental pollution and resource depletion,etc.The issue of global climate change intensified,it is a kind of warning on human society,countries around the world pay more and more attention to energy conservation and emission reduction.China has always maintained a high degree of attention on the issue of energy conservation and emission reduction,and actively respond to the attitude,responds to global climate change with a positive attitude.In 2015,the global climate change conference in Paris,Xi Jinping chairman on behalf of China,He has promised by 2030 China unit of gross domestic product of carbon dioxide emissions by 60%-65% lower than in 2005.Yunnan province is a part of China,actively respond to a nation called on,serious implementation of energy conservation and emissions reduction policy and related requirements.The decoupling relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Yunnan province,to realize the harmonious development of the energy consumption and economic growth has a certain practical significance for Yunnan province.This paper takes Yunnan Province as the study area,the theoretical part of the research background,significance,research contents and methods,related concepts and related research are summarized and combed.The empirical part of the specific contents are as follows: firstly,the selection of 2005-2014 in Yunnan Province Economic and energy related statistical data as the basic data,analyzed the energy consumption situation province and the economic growth situation in Yunnan in 2005-2014,analyzed total energy consumption in Yunnan province in 2005-2014 by LMDI decomposition method,analyzed the contribution of four factors,such as structural factors,intensity factors,economic factors and population factors,to explore whether the effects of the four factors are driven or suppressed.From the relevance,the overall trend and associated three aspects analyzes the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption.Secondly,the spatial pattern of energy consumption and the spatial pattern of economic growth were analyzed briefly.Then tested and analyzed decoupling model,the energy consumption and economic growth of Yunnan Province and its 16 cities based on the Tapio;This paper also analyses the decoupling and deviation of energy consumption and output value of the three industry in Yunnan Province.Finally,used scenario analysis,setting mode,status and power saving mode of high strength and energy saving mode of three kinds of situations,also setted up different scenarios in Yunnan Province's energy consumption rate of decline,the growth rate of GDP,then got the total volume of GDP and the total energy consumption of Yunnan Province in 2015-2025,and predicts the Yunnan Province's decoupling situation between total energy consumption and economic growth in the next ten years after 2014.The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis of each part:(1)The total energy consumption during the study period fluctuations but overall still maintain an upward trend;The energy consumption and economic growth in Yunnan Province are related,but the rate of growth is not synchronous changes;Good momentum of economic development in Yunnan Province in 2005-2014,the economic growth speed of the whole body to maintain an upward trend.(2)From 2005 to 2014,economic factors,structural factors and population factors on the contribution of changes in the total energy consumption in Yunnan Province was positive,the three factors' s effect of changes in the total energy consumption is driven.(3)From 2005 to 2014,Yunnan Province's high energy consumption area mainly in central Yunnan and east Yunnan,low energy consumption area was focused on the northwest Yunnan,west Yunnan and south Yunnan,the heart of economic growth is always in central Yunnan;From the perspective of a larger area,east Yunnan energy consumption is higher than west Yunnan;East Yunnan economic growth higher than west Yunnan,likewise,economic development level is also in east Yunnan higher than in the west Yunnan.(4)From 2006 to 2014,Yunnan Province and its 16 cities decoupling state of energy consumption and economic growth were increase connection,weak decoupling and decoupling,for growth connections in Yunnan Province in 2006,for growth for weak decoupling in Yunnan Province in 2007-2012,for strong decoupling in 2013,for weak decoupling in 2014;In addition,in Yunnan Province,three industrial energy consumption and output growth state of decoupling have increase connection,with negative decoupling,weak decoupling,strong decoupling,,From the point of decoupling state and deviation analysis results,decoupling relationship of three industrial energy consumption and output growth did not reach the ideal state.(5)The results of Yunnan Province decoupling trend forecast in future ten years show that status quo mode energy consumption and economic growth will long-term remain weak decoupling,and energy saving mode can keep the weak decoupling in 2015-2020,reach to strong decoupling in 2021-2025,and the intensity of high energy saving mode can realize long-term strong decoupling state.