Empirical Research On Bond Market In China Based On Bond Turnover

From the initial issue of bonds in 1894 to the real start of China's bond market in 1981,and to the unified and stratified bond market system which consists of three basic sub-markets,namely,the inter-bank market,the exchange market(the Shanghai Stock Exchange and and the Shenzhen Exchange)and the counter market of commercial banks,China's bond market has made rapid development and the system of China's bond market has become more perfect.Especially,in recent years,the whole bond market has developed vigorously.In 2016,China's bond turnover exceeded 200 trillion yuan.In 2017,China's bond turnover reached 265.78 trillion yuan,which is an increase of 11.34%over the same period in 2016 and a compound growth rate of 40.69%in five years.In 2018,China's total bond issues reached 18.47 trillion yuan which nearly 30 times than the total bond issues in 1998.Today,the bond market has become an important part of China's financial market.The bond market is becoming more and more important to the development of financial market and the improvement of financial system.The National Development and Reform Commission,the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other institutions have issued a series of policies to promote the development of the bond market.How to build a bond market which will help to promote the stability of our financial market and the healthy development of our national economy is receiving increasingly wide attention.So,it is very important to study the bond market of our country.Most of the studies on bond market by scholars at home and abroad are carried out from the perspective of bond portfolio and risk.And few of these studies have studied the development of bond market from the perspective of bond turnover.So,based on the bond turnover,this paper uses empirical analysis to study China's bond market and explore the development law of China's bond market.The paper chooses 12 factors which can influence bond turnover from the perspectives of macro and micro.Then this paper explores the relationship among bond turnover,macro and micro factors,and finds out the factors that have important influence on bond turnover.And The paper establishes a multiple linear regression model and a non-linear regression model between bond turnover and these influencing factors.Then the text modifies and optimizes the model.Finally,the text chooses an optimal and practical model.This model is used to predict China's bond turnover,and grasp the development law of China's bond market from the perspective of bond turnover.In addition,through the model,we can clearly see the specific effects of the factors that affect the bond turnover,which has important guiding significance for our country to regulate the bond market by adjusting the bond turnover.Firstly,this paper analyses the correlation between the factors which affect the bond turnover and bond turnover respectively.Then,this paper rejects factors that have no or very weak correlation with the bond turnover,and uses the remaining influencing factors to establish models between these remaining factors and the bond turnover.For models,the paper establishes a multiple linear regression model and a non-linear regression model to fit the relationship between the bond turnover and influencing factors.Then,the text compares and analyses the two models,and chooses the best fitting model.Finally,this paper uses residual analysis to verify the validity of the selected model and the fitting degree of the selected model to data.So,the availability of the model is ensured.And the final conclusion is drawn.After that,the article makes some further analysis of the conclusion.The conclusions of this paper:(1)Using the model established in this paper can predict the future trend of China's bond turnover through the changes of total futures turnover,transaction amount of securities investment fund,Gross National Income,Consumption Expenditure of Rural Residents and the Growth Rate of Consumption Expenditure of Urban Residents.(2)The model established in this paper realizes the function of grasping the development law of China's bond market from the perspective of bond turnover.(3)The regulation of the bond turnover can be achieved through the regulation of total futures turnover,transaction:amount of securities investment fund,Gross National Income,Consumption Expenditure of Rural Residents or the Growth Rate of Consumption Expenditure of Urban Residents.Therefore,China's bond market can be perfected through this aspect.It is of great significance for realizing a more rational allocation of social resources and promoting the healthy and efficient development of economy.The innovation of this paper:(1)The paper study the bond market based on the bond turnover.(2)The paper analyses the relationship between the bond turnover and its influencing factors from the perspectives of multiple linear regression and non-linear regression.(3)The paper uses residual analysis to verify the validity of the selected model and the fitting degree of the selected model to data.So,the model can be used for prediction and analysis.