Fuzzy Evaluation Of Financing Risk Of Expressway Project Based On Entropy

In order to promote economic development in Yunnan province, and in response to our country’s "Bridgehead" strategy and "One Belt, One Road" strategic planning, Yunnan province is spending much to develop the highway in recent years. Highway project not only have a large demand for funds, but also with a long payback period, the volume of traffic is dozens or even hundreds of times of ordinary highway, its technical and financial requirements are quite high, now the built of highway tend to use the mode of project financing, which introducing the enterprise capital, advanced construction technology and its high management level, but as so many parties have involved in highway projects, even the construction and operating period is very long span of time, the project still faces many risks, and thus risk assessment needed to be done before the project begins in order to assess its comprehensive risk,then assess the feasibility of the project according to the comprehensive risk assessment, and for a specific focus on several risk aspects to analyze and prevent, so as to make scientific decisions and also reduce the risk effectively.This paper combines Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP) with Entropy weight method to evaluate the highway project financing risks, the combination of the two methods can make full use of the advantages and abandon the disadvantages of both sides, which make the result objective and reasonable, and able to make a comprehensive evaluation of the level of project financing risks for rational investment decisions in advance. Firstly, through the literature and related cases, we divide the risks into two levels which are of 7 first-class indexes and 31 second-class indexes through the experience of highway project financing risks both in domestic and foreign countries that we encountered in practice, then the risk level is divided into five levels:higher, high, average, low, lower. We use FAHP to make an assessment of highway project financing risks, and use entropy weight method to determine the weight of each index, according to the obtained risk index S to find the corresponding reviews or comments range, and thus assess the level of the highway project financing risk. This combination of subjective and objective enhanced the reasonableness of the evaluation.I select Xinlin Highway(from Xinping, Yuxi city to Linxiang, Lincang city, in Yunnan province) Project as a case, use the Xinlin highway project’s data which obtained from the feasibility study report and the late construction and operation status to analyze the case in detail. These elaborate the using of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and Entropy weight method in Expressway Project Financing Risk Assessment more clearly.