A Study On The Correlation Between Tourism Industry Development And Economic Growth In Yunnan Province

Based on the correlation between tourism industry and economic growth in Yunnan province, this paper is discussing to support it, including these sub problems:(1) Is this a causal relationship between economic growth and the tourism industry in Yunnan province;(2) How to measure from the tourism industry perspective of the dynamic equilibrium chronically push effect on the economic growth;(3) The relationship of lead and lag between the tourism industry and economic growth in Yunnan province. In order to discuss quantitatively about their relationship between the tourism industry and economic development in Yunnan province this paper is talking with the ADF unit root test, Granger causality test, linear regression and PP test and cross spectrum analysis method…etc. Data sources include: <China tourism yearbook>, <Yunnan statistical yearbook> and China’s National Bureau of Statistics of the national economy and social development in Yunnan province, this paper is studying for Yunnan province. As a result, the data are province data; furthermore choose from 2000 to 2014 for 15 years of continuous data. There are chapter structures and partial conclusions as follows:The first chapter descried about the background of this paper and a review of the existing research. Also this paper introduces researches of the domestic and foreign scholars studying for the relationship between tourism industry and economic growth.The second chapter reviewed the general situation of the tourism industry development in Yunnan province, also talked about phases, and characteristics such as content…etc. According of the research, it shows that the tourism industry development in Yunnan province has experienced the preliminary development stage(1978-1988), the tourism industry construction stage(1989-1995), the pillar industry construction stage(1996-2004), the strongly tourism economy stage(2005- present), at the same time,the domestic tourism income, tourist foreign exchange income, and tourism revenue indicators such as total continues to grow, transportation, accommodation and other infrastructure is gradually perfect, the tourism market system preliminary established regional cooperation, and it shows the results.The third chapter to the fifth chapter is quantitatively analysis with logic sequence arrangement. Firstly, this study talks that is there a causal relationship between tourism industry and economic growth. After determined the causation, research the tourism industry to economic growth contribution degree and the effect it pushed to, also establish a long-term dynamic equilibrium model and tell the relationship between tourism industry and economic growth in Yunnan province in a long term. Again, on the analysis of the contribution and pull effect based on further study, what is ahead of tourism industry impact on economic development or economic impact on the tourism industry.In the third chapter, ADF unit root test results show that the tourism revenue and economic aggregate GDP in Yunnan province are on the second order difference which is a smooth process. According to Granger causality test, the development of tourism industry in Yunnan province’s economic growth Granger causes. In chapter 4, we measure the contribution degree of economic growth to the tourism industry development in Yunnan province. And the results show that the tourism industry in Yunnan province of 2000-2000 on economic contribution is emerging a undulation; the contribution degree on economic of tourism industry in Yunnan province starts to increase in 2009, in this year, the contribution degree is 13.14%. In 2014, the contribution degree is increasing to 20.8%. In the meanwhile, through the construction of the tourism industry in Yunnan province and economic growth to pull the long-term dynamic equilibrium model, we get the results of the tourism industry development in Yunnan province rate 1% increased(or decreased) and the total economy growth rate of GDP increased(or decreased) of 0.213603%. In the fifth chapter, through the cross spectrum analysis shows that the overall tourism industry development is more outdated than economic growth in Yunnan province, on a long period, economic growth has a lower dependence to tourism industry development in Yunnan province, but in a short term, this dependence is higher.The sixth chapter is countermeasures and Suggestions for this issue. According to the above results, this chapter believes that the development of the tourism industry has significant contribution to economic development. However, if the tourism industry development was more outdated than economic growth, thus, for a long time scale is bound to restrict the growth of the economy. As a result, this paper points out the construction of the tourism industry in Yunnan province and gives some suggestions of the economic benign development, it includes:(1)improve the effective demand and effective supply of tourism consumption;(2)develop the potential tourism employment, promoting social employment;(3) innovate investment mechanism, and broaden the financing channels;(4)strengthen the regional tourism economic cooperation, and promote the regional tourism and economic development.