Empirical Analysis On Relationship Between Tourism Receipt And Economic Growth

In recent years, the rapid development of tourism industry, the performance of the weak growth performance of the new normal, the tourism revenue remains high speed growth, this phenomenon has aroused great concern of researchers, find out the tourism industry and the total economy The relationship between growth and economic growth is particularly striking. The existing research shows that in different countries and different regions, the relationship between total tourism income and economic growth shows different, and even come to the opposite conclusion. In this paper, using the new classical economic growth model and other related theories, with the statistical data of tourism income and regional GDP in Kunming, the author uses the econometric method to understand the relationship between Kunming tourism and Kunming's economic growth. Impact, and further enrich the relevant areas of research.In the research method, this paper uses the Eviews6.0 software to convert the total tourism income and regional GDP of Kunming from 1995 to 2015 to the constant price, and then take the natural logarithm process and apply the minimum (GDP) of Kunming city by means of OLS, first-order and second-order difference, ADF unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test. The results show that the total income of tourism in Kunming has a positive correlation with GDP the study. The results show that there is a close relationship between the development of tourism in Kunming and the economic growth of Kunming, which has a significant impact. First, Kunming tourism income and regional GDP data is not smooth, with the second order single whole. The descriptive statistical analysis shows that the time series of tourism income LTR and LGDP GDP of Kunming are not stable. However, the ADF unit root method was used to test the second-order difference stationary degree. At 1% significance level, the ADF test values of LGDP and LTR were all less than the critical value, so they were stable at 1% significance level, Through the test, there is no unit root, are second order single whole. Second, there is a cointegration relationship between tourism income and regional GDP in Kunming, which is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship. In this paper, the co-integration analysis of tourism income and regional GDP in Kunming is made by using the two-step test. The result shows that tourism income and regional GDP are co-integrated in Kunming. The contribution rate of total tourism income of Kunming to Kunming local economic growth is 8.37, which shows that the development of tourism has a significant impact on the national economic growth. Third, there is a two-way causal relationship between the growth of tourism income (TR) and Kunming's economic development (GDP). Granger causality test results show that when the lag time is 2 years, the growth of tourism income (TR) in Kunming is obviously Granger cause of Kunming's economic development (GDP). With the increase of lag time, (GDP) is obviously the Granger cause of Kunming tourism development (TR), the economic development of Kunming has a good influence on the development of tourism industry, and the development of tourism in Kunming is very weak. Role, but with a lag of 5 years becomes less obvious.