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Gas Field Development To Optimize The Decision-making System

Posted on:2006-08-26Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y C MaFull Text:PDF
GTID:2209360182956000Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
This paper is briefly researched to plan the development of gas-field by use of the advanced methods and principles of management science and system engineering. This paper analysis the all proceedings in distributing the optimal output to the gas extraction factories of a gas-field by take the profit as core and pursue the efficient of decision-making, by thus a innovated way consists of getting data, development index prediction, comprehensive evaluation and optimal decision-making is given. This way possesses so good performance of integration and integral optimization that it very suit to gas-field and its affiliates to plan their development. The main contents as following:(1) The more advanced prediction methods are studied to predict the development index of gas-field on the basis of the mastery prediction methods.Start form the traditional BP NN, an ameliorated BP NN with feedback loop is given. At the same time, considering the NN method with defects such as easy getting in the local extremum, the structure is difficult to ascertain etc. The method of support vector regression which can well resolve the problem with the insufficient swatch, nonlinear and high dimension is introduction to predict the development index of gas-field. At last the method of combination forecasting based on function of fresh degree is applied and the precision of prediction is further improved.(2) The optimal model which possesses good performance and is used to distribute output of a gas-field is established by using system theory and feedback theory, and a new proposed evolutionary algorithm called Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is applied to compute the model.After retrospection the optimal models of output distribution, output structure and step output structure, we first established the correlative relationships between the each subentry outputs and its effect factors based on the AHP method, then the system simulator is established to optimize the each subentry output and each cost and by do thus the whole output, cost and profit is optimized subsequently. The optimal output distribution, the optimal output structure and the optimal and the optimal step structure can derive from this optimal outcome by statistic according to different criterions. As to the five-year programming model, it describe the evolvement relationship of each subentry output by a system simulator with feedback loop, and by do thus it realized the optimization from bottom to top. As the implicit functions exist in these models, a new proposed evolutionary algorithm called Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is applied to compute the model.(3) The optimal decision-making of the programming schemes of gas-fielddevelopment is by using the up-to-date comprehensive evaluation methodFirst, the various comprehensive evaluation in the world and theirs development are summed, subsequently a comprehensive evaluation called Linear Combination Weights Based on Enropy is given. This method possesses the advantages of subjective method and objective method, so it suit to comprehensively evaluate the development schemes of gas-field(4) Instance analysisWe applied the principles and methods which are researched in above to several blocks of a factual gas-field and the result demonstrate it is effective, continue to applied it to the whole gas field and get good profit.
Keywords/Search Tags:gas field, development programming, output distribution, optimal decision-making, function simulation, prediction, comprehensive evaluation
PDF Full Text Request
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