Individual Housing Mortgage Default Risk Analysis And Countermeasures

Recently, Personal Housing Mortgage Loan Service in business banks has been under rapid development. The importance of personal housing loan has been shown both in the scale of credit service, and in its contribution to the income of banks. However, there is also one issue that deserves our concerns, which is the risk control and management of personal housing mortgage loan. If this problem cannot be solved successfully, it will do harm to business banks both in terms of the healthy development of their personal capital service, and in terms of their future undertaking earnings and competition capabilities.This paper is doing a research on the personal housing mortgage loan service operated by Personal Housing Loan Center, Sichuan Branch, Some Bank, since the foundation of the center. The subject of the research will be the factors that influence the risk of personal housing mortgage loan default. This research will take advantage of mature foreign theories and results, and also the research methods that often taken by domestic scholars; by applying the SPSS software and analyzing through factor and discriminant, this research tries to recognize and estimate the influential factors that might lead to the default of debtor. This paper has two objectives, one is to estimate the risk of personal housing mortgage loan service operated by Personal Housing Loan Center, Sichuan Branch, Some Bank, and the second is to provide a theoretical and positive research on how to prevent and control the risk of personal housing mortgage loan effectively. The results of this paper are:The first is to find that the regional economy factor has the positive direction effect on the nonperforming risk of the personal housing mortgage loan. This finding prove the fact that the personal housing mortgage loan has developed quickly with low percent of non-performing in the housing market with continuously price-rising.The second is to find that the investment character factor has the highest discriminant quotiety to the personal housing mortgage loan. It is consistent with the research conclusion of Wang Fu Lin. We can say that the purpose of house-purchase has very important effect on the nonperforming risk of the personal housing mortgage loan.The third is to find that the financial burden-rate factor has the negative direction effect on the nonperforming risk of the personal housing mortgage loan. As the result, the income of the borrower is the most important ensurance of safety to the personal housing mortgage loan. So we must check up the credit conditions of the borrower strictly.The fourth is to find that the mean of house total prices, floorage and unit price in the performing group is higher than that in the nonperforming group in description of the independent variable. We may draw a conclusion that the absolute financial burden is not the mostly reason for the nonperforming risk of the personal housing mortgage loan. The results of discriminant tell us that the discriminant quotiety of the absolute financial burden factor is lower than that of the financial burden-rate factor. This finding is constant with the conclusion of the independent variable description. So we must take...