Highway Construction Project Risk Early Warning System

In the past two decades, great success has been achieved in the highway construction(especially express highway) of China. Due to its characteristics of long time lasting, complex condition and tremendous usage of capital, it is existed kinds of risks during road construction. Some risks can be prevented but others are out of expectation, which are raised by various reasons and will affect the project construction. During the project construction, cost, progress and quality are always out of control, therefore, it is of great significance to study how to set up a risk early-warning system so as to manage the project risk and assure the project completed smoothly.This paper mainly contains three parts of the research content. In the first part, the concept of risk early-warning, its development history and relative knowledge were introduced, the structure of risk management was set up initially which can be divided in to 5 subsystem: risk identify subsystem; risk analysis subsystem; risk early-warning subsystem; risk countermeasure subsystem; risk evaluation subsystem. This paper introduced the method of risk early-warning and analyzing.The second part was mainly about the influential factors of risk management and risk management index. This paper put emphasis on the analyzing methods of quantitative foreseeable risk, un-quantitative foreseeable and un-know risk.The third part was mainly about the study on three project goals--cost,progress and quality risk management. The steps to set these three project goal was as follow:· Analyze risk reasons.· Select reasonable risk controlled point· Set up index (one or more)· Set up kinds of risk early-warning models.· Get results of risk forecasting by quantities formation.· Classify and send out different early-warning signals.The three goals vary in the early-warning model and methods. For example, cost early-warning is based on net value analytical method, progress early-warning is based on its deviation, quality early-warning is based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.At the end of this paper, some conclusions were drawn and advices were suggested for the future work.