Risk Assessment Study Of The Sx Mobile Communication Network In The Cell Broadcast Projects

In the today's engineering project evaluation and decision processes, how the exactitude assess the risk is one of the most important issues that needs the research urgently. For resolving the risk assessment in the project, the related nation and organizations all drew up some risk assessment theories standard. At the same time, carry on the risk evaluation and analytical methods to the project also has a lot of. The author of this thesis has read a great deal of professional knowledge about cell broadcast engineering, project management and the risk assessment, and participated to draw up the total investment construction plan for the cell broadcast engineering project.This thesis according to the thought of the AS/NZS 4360 standard about the risk management, synthesize to apply Sensitivity Analysis method, Fault Tree Analysis method, Monte Carlo Simulation, and so on, carry on the risk assessment research to the cell broadcast engineering project of SX province mobile communication's network and sevice for project evaluation and decision. At the same time, build up a set of complete risk assessment model. In the process of risk identify, risk analysis and risk evaluation, pays attention to the method that qualitative and quantitative combine together and analyse problem from the systematic and synthetical angles.Thesis first give introduce about the main characteristics and research meanings of the engineering project risk. Introduce the project investment construction plan after. And then, analysis the cell broadcast business mode and construct plan for the investment and incomes estimate of the project. According to the procedure and methods of risk assessment, identify and analyse the main risk factor from market, technique and investment aspects, complete the risk assessment and take appropriate measures. Finally, take advantage of Monte Carlo Simulation to discuss the simulation project of the risk evaluation with the help of the software of Microsoft Excel, carry on simulation and gives the result by chart. Can see from the simulation result, the project has the higher total anti-risk ability, and can attain the anticipant investment income target. At the same time, some applied resources that method take up is little and the operability is strong, certainly have applied value.