Risk Assessment Of Demand Side Management Based On Monte-Carlo Simulation

The demand and side management (DSM) is an effective consumer's management method to decrease the highest power load and increase the lowest power load. DSM helps consumers decrease power consumption in highest power load time and increase power consumption in lowest power load time by making use of the technological, economical, administrative and instructional integrative actions. The final target of DSM is to strive for the win-win results to both participants.DSM evaluation is a systemic measurement of the running status and obtained achievement of DSM. This evaluation adopts technique data to assure the validity of results and provide basis for the DSM decision-making in the future.With the upsizing and complication trend of DSM project quantity, scale, range, cost and profit, it is necessary to carry on risk assessment about it. Currently, Project Estimation is the most commonly-used evaluation method in the world. This method uses calculation and mathematic models to estimate the saved electricity and reduced loading. However, it is found that the actual saving is always lower than the value of Project Estimation in the application of DSM project. Because Project Estimation bases on the equipment of attendee, it can not indicate the differences between net benefit and total benefit. Simply using Project Estimation to evaluate the DSM project may bring harmful results to power companies, which directly lead to the enhancement of subsidy rate and the damage of benefits of society when it lowers the electro-rate of consumers.This paper analyzes the current situation of DSM and deduces the risk source of DSM project investment and the necessity of risk assessment. Furthermore a set of DSM risk assessment system from three respects: electricity power system, consumer and environment is proposed in this paper.Aiming at the disadvantages of the current evaluate method, this paper makes use of Monte-Carlo simulation method and the technique of DSM project risk analysis,proposes a new risk analysis which can be used in the DSM project. The advantage of the simulation method is that, under the certain specified precision value, the selected model and the simulation time could determine the calculation of DSM evaluate index, but not bases on the scale of DSM project. This new evaluation method can predict various types of possible harmful consequences; and obtain the probability distribution graph of DSM evaluation index. It can offer reference to DSM project technicians who could propose the feasibility schemes to avoid the harmful results, accordingly decreasing the inaccuracy of assessment, raising the efficiency of DSM project.On the basis of the detailed introduction of the risk assessment and Monte-Carlo simulation method, and take consideration of risk assessment index, this paper obtains the probability scatter gram of main risk factors in DSM project by Matlab emulation. The theoretical analysis indicates the advantages of rapid and high efficiency of Monte-Carlo simulation method in dynamic risk assessment of DSM project and it suits the analysis of large scale DSM project.