Evolution Mechanism And Cooperated Emergency Management Mechanism For Urban Post-Earthquake Disasters

As the political, economical, and cultural center, the city is always densely populated, fully developed in industry and commerce and also has highly centralized urban lifeline engineering systems. Once an earthquake happens, various secondary disasters may be induced, which would be more destructive even than the earthquake itself. Therefore, the study of evolution mechanism of urban post-earthquake disasters and emergency management mechanism plays a significant role in strengthening the urban anti-earthquake potentiality. Unfortunately, the available studies have the following shortcomings:first of all, they mainly focus on the single secondary disaster with inadequate research on the evolution mechanism and the relationship between different disasters; secondly, they are mainly based on qualitative analysis rather than quantitative analysis.Based on the theory of hazard system, Bayesian network and the chain of urban public emergency, this research analyzes the evolution mechanism of urban post-earthquake dynamically in the light of Bayesian Network toolbox. Firstly, data samples for the present research are obtained through statistical analysis on the sixteen examples which are accumulated by empirical analysis on the representative urban earthquakes at home and abroad. Secondly, networks are established based on the causalities between different disasters nodes. Thirdly, posterior probability is worked out through dynamic reasoning and analysis about the disaster nodes in the light of Bayesian network toolbox. Fourthly, a numerical study is done for the sake of the explanation and application of the previous method, of which the predictability on the secondary disasters of urban earthquake is testified and demonstrated. And then by taking advantage of the two-way inference capacity Bayesian network, the vulnerability of the urban earthquake is studied to find out the weakness of the disaster network in each time, so as to prevent disasters after the earthquake by manual intervention. Finally, based on the research on evolution mechanism of disasters and vulnerability of the network, the research examines the features of urban earthquake emergency management, studies the decision-making objective and subject under the condition of evolution of urban earthquake disaster chain, and constructs emergency management of social interaction mechanisms of Chinese characteristics, which all together provide reference for the establishment and improvement of Chinese urban emergency response system.Above all, the present research is of great significance for the urban earthquake emergency management, and is likely to lead the urban managers to view the mechanism of the urban earthquake secondary disasters from a systematical view. The modeling method proposed in this thesis can make prediction about the evolving process of secondary disasters when prior knowledge of the earthquake disaster and the protective level of the city is available, which thus make emergency agencies well prepared for the emergency and then intervene manually in the weakness of the disaster network so as to reduce the loss of human society by earthquake.