Study On The Current Status Of MSW Generation And MSW Delivering Quantity Forecasting In Shenzhen

In our country, due to the rapid development of urban economy, the social problems and environmental issues causesd by municipal solid waste are becoming increasingly prominent, which appears especially serious in Shenzhen where there is less land and large population. In order to solve this troublesome problem and beautify living environment for the citizens, the local government is taking more and more seriously the issues, conducting extensive research on municipal solid waste management system, and having waste disposal facilities constructed. So, the accurate prediction of the municipal solid waste delivering quantity plays an especially important role in municipal planning projects and city management.This thesis studied the change of MSW delivering quantity from the year 2000 to 2009 in Shenzhen, and the internal factors which affect the municipal solid waste delivering quantity was analyzed by grey incidence analysis. Comprehensive analysis and induction to all home and abroad prediction methods after searching literature, then chose combination forecasting model with non-negative variable weights that consisted of multiple linear regression model, stepwise regression model, GM(1, 1) and GPPM to predict and analyze municipal solid waste delivering quantity in Shenzhen city from the year 2011 to 2015.The research manifested that, the combination forecasting model with non-negative variable weights was obviously superior to every single forecasting model, which could objectively and factually reflect the change and development of MSW delivering quantity from the year 2000 to 2009 in Shenzhen, whose forecasting results was able to become decision-making evidence when local authorities adjusted the policy. According to the combination predicting model, the municipal solid waste delivering quantity will increase more than 300 thousand tons every year and the average annual growth rate will reach 6. 4%, during the period of the"12th 5 year-plan". Until the end of the year 2015, the MSW delivering quantity in Shenzhen will be approximately 6. 6million tons.