Analysis Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based On A System Dynamic Model And System Optimization

The water resources is the necessary development conditions of social and economy, it's also one of the important factors affecting the ecological environment. With population's sharp increase and economy's prompt development, the rapid increase in demand, the problems of water resources become the most prominent problems in the word. How to properly handle the relations between water resources and population as well as between environment and sustainable economic development has become a focus of social concern and a hot topic of scientific research.Firstly, under the nonlinear and from system structure, the sustainable development model had been established in four sub-models with the consideration of population, economics, water resources and environment. Based on the model, we simulated the progress of water resources system in the future. And combine with analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the vector norm method. While using the results of the sensitivity of the model validation, design of different simulation programs using the more sensitive parameters. Some suggestions were proposed to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources. Through the simulation results of the water carrying capacity in Bohai Sea Ring Area from 2011 to 2020. under the conditions of maintaining present development, the water resources carrying capacity has slight increase, but has small changes. Only saving present water resources with controlling wastewater pollution and reducing sewage discharge, at the same time adjust the industrial structure would be effective way to improve the water resources carrying capacity and the coordinated development of economy, society, and environment in Bohai Sea Ring Area.Secondly, according to the 'three times balance' theory for supply and demand of water resources, we calculated the water resources amounts that can be supplied for industrial economy of 13 cities in Bohai Sea Ring Area. Under the different industrial economy scale and water resources utilization efficiency, the water resources demands for industry economy are calculated. We made the pressure risk index model for water resources supplying assessment, and calculated the direct pressure index and relative pressure index of 13 cities. According to the direct pressure risk assessment, industry economy scale is affect prominently by industrial utilization efficiency of water resources, and Cangzhou will be confronted with maximal supplying pressure risk of water resources, next. Yantai has supplying pressure risk. Between different cities, the pressure risk index has large differences, and industry economy development has large risk of water resource supplying. According to relative pressure risk assessment, Yantai has maximal relative pressure risk, in the next place. Tangshan. Dongying and Cangzhou, Jinzhou has minimal relative pressure risk. Among province level, Shandong province will be confronted maximal relative pressure risk, secondly, Hebei province, and Binhaixinqu of Tianjin has minimal relative pressure risk. In the future, the pressure risk of industrial utilization water resource has a trend of increasement.Finally, by building the multi-purpose programming model for water resources carrying capacity, with key industry economic benefit in Bohai Sea Ring Area, water consumption of the key industry as objection and total water resources, economic development scale as constraint conditions. Through solving the model, calculate the optimal water use of the key industry. An industry adjust optimization scheme is also built according to the solution, to improve water resources carrying capacity in Bohai Sea Ring Area.