The Modification Of Ecological Footprint Model And The Application To Strategic Environmental Assessment

Ecological footprint is a method to judge sustainabiliy by introducing balance factors and output factors to achieve comparability of all kinds of biologically productive land in various countries and regions clearly reflecting the stress on ecological system from human social development which had evoked strong reaction in the world when the method was put forward. However, it is more suitable for application to environmental impact assessment in the global or national wide, but more difficult to better use in a region or in a smaller area. For example, the ecological footprint of import-oriented and export-oriented regions could be underestimated or overestimated, the more economically developed area could have more serious ecological deficit etc., all these result in assessment distortion in a regional area. Therefore, how to select and analyze large amounts of information behind ecological footprint accounts and how to combine important indicators to modify ecological footprint model used in a regional area providing valuable data in strategic environmental assessment is worth studying.This paper reviews the progress of studies of ecological footprint at home and abroad; and puts forward limitations of application of ecological footprint model to SEA; and proposes quantitative forecasting method based on the binding mechanism of planning targets in SEA; and identifies impact factors of ecological footprint by SPSS statistical correlation studies based on the data of Shanghai ecological footprint and related indicators from2000to2010and uses multiple linear regression prediction model to combine the ecological footprint model and its impact factors; and selects the key indicators of energy, technology and trade to combine with the traditional ecological footprint model so as to modify the traditional ecological footprint model; and applies the modified model to Shanghai12th five-year plan for economical and social development including its status assessment, zero plan assessment and planning assessment, simulating alternative scenarios, proposing measures to reduce ecological footprint of Shanghai and optimize the planning scheme. The case study results show that:1. Status assessment of ecological footprint based on the traditiioanl modelThe ecological capacity of Shanghai in2010was2110748.642hectares while the ecological footprint was38794763.86hectares,18times larger than the ecological capacity. The per capita fossil energy land occupied the largest proportion, accounting for more than80%, followed by cultivated land, water, grass, building land, and forest accounted for a very small proportion.2. Status assessment of ecological footprint based on the modified modelAccording to the correlation analysis of2000-2010Shanghai ecological footprint and related indicators, GDP energy consumption, the proportion of research and development expenditure in Shanghai GDP and the proportion of total export value in GDP were respectively selected as indicators of Energy (E), Science (S) and Trade (T) to modify the ecological footprint model.The total ecological footprint of Shanghai in2010based on the modified model was788.81million hectares while the per capita ecological footprint was0.55852hectares. The reduction degree of ecological footprint caused by energy, science and trade factors were0.879,0.629and0.368, thus export trade having the most impact on the ecological footprint.3. Status assessment of ecological capacityThe ecological capacity of Shanghai in2010was only2110748.642hectares with cultivated land, forest, waters and construction land respectively accounting for53.25%,1.53%,2.37%and56.49%. Energy constitutes the main part of ecological deficit and has been increasing followed by waters and farmland; and construction land has been in ecological surplus, but the surplus amount is decreasing.4. Zero plan assessmentThe ecological deficit in2015will be43352100hectares and the per capita ecological deficit will be2.9304hectares; based on the modified model, the ecological deficit in2015will be7157800hectares and the per capita ecological deficit will be0.4838hectares which shall be regarded as the background values of planning indicating that implementation of the12th five-year plan should not aggravate Shanghai's ecological deficit.5. Planning assessmentBased on the traditional ecological foorprint model, the ecological footprint of2015will be40300300hectares, higher than38794800hectares in2010; based on the modified ecological footprint, the ecological footprint of2015will be6439900hectares, smaller than7888100hectares in2010; which is caused by the reduction degree of ecological footprint from energy, science, trade factors greater than the degree in2010which respectively is0.859,0.667and0.279in2015.Therefore, the modified ecological footprint model outperforms the traditional ecological footprint model more realistically reflecting influence of the planning on ecological footprint as well as quantitatively analyzing the reduction degree of ecological footprint caused by energy, science and trade so as to provide the basis for planning revision of quantitative constraint mechanism for ecological footprint.6. Alternative scenarios simulation and selectionIn order to further reduce ecological footprint, the planning could adjust agricultural production value, import values, GDP energy consumption(E), the proportion of research and development expenditure in Shanghai GDP(S) and the proportion of total export value in GDP(T) achieving rationalization of trade import and export, energy utilization efficiency and the progress of science and technology. The scenarios analysis shows that the optimal solution is that when the target of agricultural production value in2015increases by10%and the import targe decreases by5%, EF will be3865100hectares; when T is71.63, and S is3.5, and E decrease by20%in2015, EF'will be5.9947million hectares.