City Multi-modal Transit Travel Time Reliability Study

With durative develop of the urban economy and domain, more cities strengthened the construction of public transport to alleviate the serious traffic problems, especially in recent years, as the urban rail transit and bus rapid transit developed quickly, multi-modal transport network wih which rail transit as backbone and other various public transports as complementarity become a trend for urban public transport. In addition, the increasing vehement of social and economic activities make the time of urban residents continuously became more and more valuable, thus, travel time reliability of multi-modal public transport became more important for urban residents.As a key indicator to measure stability degree of travel time, travel time reliability directly reflects the quality of public transport service, provide decision-making basis for residents to arrange their travel and for managers to optimize public transport service. Therefore, this paper takes the travel time reliability of multi-modal public transport as its research object. With the characteristics of multi-modal public transport, established the SAMN (State-Augmented Multi-modal Network) based on supernetwork method and state augmented method, and set up its data model. Besides, designed the multi-route search algorithm with transfer constraint according to SAMN.In addition, this paper defined the passenger's perceptive travel time according to the travelers'psychological characteristics, under this definition, analysie route travel time reliability, OD interborough travel time reliability as well as network travel time reliability respectively from the view of travelors and of managers, set up their calculate model and monte carlo algorithm. Route travel time reliability could help travelers choice the routes while OD interborough travel time reliability as well as network travel time reliability help managers estimate the performance of network, and provide necessary decision support for multi-modal public transport network planning and management optimizing for transportation managers.Finally, a numerical example is carried out to illuminate route travel time reliability,OD interborough travel time reliability as well as network travel time reliability, and show the applications and efficiency of the proposed method.