Busterminal And Simulation System Design Which Based On Arrival Time Prediction Theory

Traffic congestion is a common problem faced by many countries in the world. It caused great waste of time, and increased environmental pollution, become one of the major obstacles to urban development. In order to solve urban traffic problems we should develop public transport system at first. Public transportation's advantages including large transportation capacity, transport efficiently, low energy consumption, low pollution, lower average transport costs etc. Intelligent public transport and information technology will effectively improve the efficiency of bus operations, attract more travelers choose bus trip.Bus terminal provide basic data to the entire public transportation system. Bus terminal performance has a direct impact on the merits of the whole public transport system. Therefore, develop a powerful and stable performance bus terminal is the primary task to implement the intelligent and information-based public transport.With the situation of domestic and international bus intelligent, and the development of China's public transportation bus terminal, this paper aims to design a bus terminal to meet the requirements of intelligence and information systems of public transport. This system not only can automatically broadcast stops, locate bus position, automatic alarm and have other basic functions, but also able to predict bus arrival time of the downstream bus station. After released the predicted information, it will help the bus passengers to make reasonable arrangements of their travel plans, and improve bus service quality.Thesis mainly works as follows.To begin with, a brief introduction about the development of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), also the role and main function of bus terminal in the ITS is made. After making simple introduction of the structure and basic function module of bus terminal, this paper makes a detailed introduction of the key technology which used in the bus terminal.Secondly, simply introduces the data format which is used in the communication of bus terminal and dispatching center server. Detailed introduces the main functions of the bus terminal and the way of its complete process. Then, this paper analyses the deficiencies of the exiting way of automatically broadcast stops, designs a new way to judge whether the bus is arriving or leaving bus station, which combine bus running status and two collected point. It will prevent the bus terminal broadcast wrong station name, also can eliminate omission of station. After that, this paper uses half bytes compression algorithm to compress the packet sent to serve. It effectively reduces the cost of transmission.Thirdly, this paper introduces the meaning of the bus arrive time prediction research, analyzes the existing bus arrive time prediction algorithm, discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each algorithm and their applicable conditions. Then uses VISSIM established a network model of Jingshi road of Jinan, obtains bus operation data of one week by simulation. After then, this paper develops the improved kalman filter model to predict bus arrival time by analyze the simulation results and existing models predict results. Through compares with the existing prediction algorithm, using improved kalman filtering model can reduce the prediction error and improve the accuracy of predicted bus arrival time.And then, this paper uses VISSIM simulation software to simulate the process of buses., real-time monitoring the bus position, encapsulates the bus position message into GPS data packets and sends to bus terminal. The bus terminal will send the data packets to the server using GPRS wireless network. After that, the bus terminal simulation system is finished. The simulation system can automatically broadcast bus stops, communicate with server, and release LED information. It built good debugging platform for the prophase development of the bus terminal, reduced the cost of development.At last, the research and development, as well as the following improvement of this paper are summarized.