With the gradual implementation of china's western development and the rapid development of regional economic integration, the metropolitan area which regard large cities as cores also develop rapidly. Currently, a number of metropolitan areas have been formed, such as, Yangtze River Delta metroplitan, Pearl River Delta metropolitan, Beijing Tianjin and Hebei metropolitan and Qinhuangdao metropolitan. The formations of metropolitan areas put forward higher requirements to the traffic between towns. Because the rail transport has many advantages, such as large volume, fast, comfortable, safe, it has been accepted by people. While the building of intercity rail can ease the supply-demand contradictions and promote economic development. In the context of Urumqi-Changji's economic integration, this paper analyzes the metropo litan area's existing transportation network, and achieves the existing network can't meet the future passenger needs. Considering the domestic and international inter-city railway development plans, the paper proposes the construction of Urumqi Metropolitan Area's railway is necessary. Regarding the major cities'economic growth and population as the main indicators, the paper adopts four-stage method to predict the generation, distribution, mode split, and allocation of inter-city passenger and uses Logit model to predict future traffic of intercity railway. Finally, basing on existing roads network, this paper initially puts forward three schemes, and prepares three index systems of program evaluation, and then used of AHP and grey system theory selecting the best solution. |