Study On The Passengers Flow Pediction Of Chengdu Metro Line 3

Along with the economical development, the city scale expands, the diversification of the people's travel mode, the condition of transportation jamming has become the universal social question. The development of the city urban rail transit plays an important part as the sole ground transportation way to be unable to solve the municipal transportation question.In recent years, the city urban rail transit has a rapid development in our country. In order to relieve traffic pressure, Chengdu has planned seven subway lines, chengdu metro line 1 has been in operation. The reasonable programming and scientific forecast about passenger flow is important in the construction of the city urban rail transit because of some characteristics:years of programming, highly cost, numerous fields. At present our country urban rail traffic volume forecast theory have limitations, so the actual situation with urban passenger traffic forecast study has important practical significance.This paper argues that urban rail traffic volume forecast should be based on the traditional "four terrace works " as the foundation, according to chengdu urban rail traffic actual characteristic, improvements to adapt to current work. In this paper,we analyzed the passenger flow of urban rail at first, then analyzed the chengdu passenger rail traffic with chengdu actual situation. Secondly, this paper summarized the method of forecasting, established rail transportation partition model based on chengdu Established in this paper based on the purpose of dweller travel generation, prediction model in trip distribution models will gravity model is improved, which meet the practical needs. In the traffic distribution and distribution model are introduced the strategy competition relations union way division, this paper studies the conventional public traffic and urban rail traffic competition model. Finally, this paper with chengdu metro line 3 of the passenger flow forecast work as an example of the above relevant research and model teaching practice. In the forecast, according to "four terrace works " four steps of the actual situation in chengdu respectively established the model, it is concluded that the chengdu metro line 3 passenger flow distribution. In the last part, the paper summarizes the research achievements of research, the shortcoming of the statements, and lay the foundation for follow-up study.