The Research Of Passenger Volume Forecast Method In Inter-city Rail Transit

Inter-city rail traffic prediction is an important part of the urban rail construction, thetraffic planning, and the future research of the urban development. It can provide basis fordecision-making for the project construction and future city. With the regional economicdevelopment, the city layout changes a lot; the connection between the city and the citybecame closely. The regional economic development promotes the communication betweenthe cities. With the city tourism development, the number of tourist increases, the passengerflow volume of traffic changes a lot. A major cause of passenger flow forecast is theincreasing of the passenger flow volume. The passenger flow forecast can meet the demand offuture city traffic, and provide important basis to traffic planning. The passenger flow forecastanalysis is based on the urban traffic development, the urban economy, statistics such aspopulation, income level. On the basis of the trend analysis we forecasting. So we must graspthe development trend of the future, that we can provide the better basis for city trafficdevelopment and construction and services. Nowadays the inter-city rail passenger flowvolume forecast method is not perfect precise. So this thesis puts forward a new idea andmethod.it has certain theoretical significance and practical value on inter-city rail transitpassenger volume forecast of the future.This thesis first overview of inter-city rail transit construction status, simple introducesthe method of the inter-city rail transit passenger volume, and reviews the development ofinter-city rail transit passenger volume, then introduces the evaluation method of railwayconstruction projects. On the case of the analysis of the urban development and the basis ofhistorical data, so we can draw a trend growth rule and the trend growth number. In theoriginal, this paper on the basis of four stage method of prediction, considers the factorsinduced passenger flow, is one of the traditional method improved the prediction, and correctthe prediction results. Finally in this paper application the theory on the inter-city rail transitline in Qingdao, yantai, and forecasts the prediction results. At last, correspondingconclusions on the basis of data analysis, and analyze the deficiencies and the correct opinion.This thesis contains five chapters. It is a kind of combination of qualitative andquantitative methods. It’s much more practical and effective prediction. This thesis containsfour innovation points:(1) use a simple statistical traffic volume, GDP, on the basis of economic development,to predict the future traffic,(2) simplifies the data of investigation, statistics work, reduces the large amounts of dataanalysis, through the analysis of the data, find the correlation coefficient and the passengerflow volume. (3) analysis the passenger flow, considers the induced passenger traffic.(4) in the calculation use the Logit method, to carry on the distribution of passenger flow,gets the assigned passenger flow to the traffic on the inter-city rail transit.