Multi-scenario Planning For Urban Land Layout Based On Rule Constrain

In order to dealing with the uncertainty and the complexity of the future, researchers in the west strategic domain proposed the method and concept of scenario planning which was widely applied in the spatial planning recently. Scenario planning is not only a method of formulating and examining the policy measures and planning management under different urban development goals, but also a tool to forecast the urban future scientifically. It shows a public participation and democratic decision-making process, enhances the scientificalness of the urban land assignment. In a word, it is an important significance for our urban master planning.This paper studies the urban master planning, land allocation, scenario planning and the application in urban planning. External driving factors of the urban master planning is refined, ordered and analyzed that generalize different future development scenarios accurately and effectively. Then rules of the urban master planning are parsed by what-if analysis model. The rule database is established and the core policy can be reflected in the scenario planning. Finally, multi-scenario planning model with the rule constraints is set up including land evaluation sub-model, rule constraint sub-model and land allocation sub-model. Associated with the GIS spatial database, these continuous operations between modules take all land allocation scenario simulations according to scenario generalization in qualitative and quantitative way. At last, the schemes of different urban planning land allocations are generalized under the restriction of rules. The conclusion of this paper mainly includes the following aspects.(1) This method of scenario planning is applied to urban planning, then the scheme of urban master planning land allocation is generated, which is corresponding with the policy and measures implemented in the current directly. At the same time, it not only improve the adaptability of the planning with the uncertainty in the future, but also help the policy makers, planners and the public to participate in the urban planning rationally.(2) Multi-scenario planning model embedded rule restriction are constructed, optimize the land evaluation sub-model and make thematic land suitability analysis on the basis of normal evaluation of urban construction land, improve the validity of simulated results of scenario planning. Rule constraint sub-model restricts the land data with the urban rules analyzed by production rules. Land allocation sub-model accurately allocate the need to the target plots by the multiple criteria algorithm with what-if.(3) The part of land rules construction is integrated into scenario generalization and simulation, urban planning laws and policies in urban master planning process are shown in quantitative and qualitative way. During the comparison of the last three scenarios, we can explore the land layout in the future. What's more, the planners and policy makers can adjust the urban planning layout timely according to the urban planning regulations, that achieve the scientificalness and currency of the plan.