Residential Retrofit Of Old Prefabricated Housing Based On The "scenario Planning" Approach

Housing security is an important issue related to people’s lives and property. In recent years, frequent earthquakes, the transformation of the old prefabricated housing settlements began to be all over the Government. However, with the progress of society, for the transformation of the old settlements not only limited research space, more related to social, economic, cultural, political and other factors. While a variety of urban construction environmental factors of uncertainty increased, which increases the corresponding transformation of the old settlements of uncertainty."Scenario planning" is the possibility of future development of the system and cause the system from the current situation to the future development of a series of dynamic events, describe and analyze the results. It is a method to deal with a highly uncertain future for effective planning and complex environment scenarios.Therefore, this article attempts to "scenario planning" used in the transformation of the old prefabricated housing settlements, providing new ideas to carry out the transformation of the old settlements to deal with complex changes in contemporary urban built environment. Firstly, the content of the topic and the research framework of this study, such as will be described; secondly, the transformation of the old settlements and the "scenario planning" to summarize the relevant literature and comb, this study provides a theoretical basis. Finally, a scenario based on the analysis, scenario building, step scenario evaluation and deduction of four scenarios, the "scenario planning" systems approach applied to the case of the transformation of the old settlements, and proposed the corresponding countermeasures scene transition.Based on these studies, this paper addresses the following question: "Are scenario planning method is suitable for the transformation of the old prefabricated housing settlements", "Framework for Action against the use of screening and selection," "By the manner in which social, economic, Environmental factors such as these abstract concepts into concrete scenarios in ", " how to determine the volume ratio of the equilibrium point corresponding to each scene, " " How to optimize the dominant program, which comments and suggestions there. " And demonstrated that the "scenario planning" approach can be well applied to the transformation of the old prefabricated housing settlements.