Research On Urban Land Expansion And Planning Scenarios Simulation

As a principal research field of urbanization, urban land use change is the focus question. City is a spatial display of the agglomerate of society, economy and culture, which supplies us the production and living space. For the rapid development of economy, the increasing population and the flowed rural population, the city constantly adjust land use structure and distribution to accommodate incessant changing of requirement of the city. Urban land expansion is one of the most common and influential land use change. Since the 1980s, China has undergone the urbanization from slow to rapid development. With the increasingly rapid population growth and development of economy, the city in different rank shows us the different speed in urbanization, and the urbanization trend is going on. However, for the process of fast urbanization, urban land use is out-of-order. Land planning and urban planning is seldom effective and lack of directive significance. Land and urban planning often lag economy development and present situation. Therefore, it is significant to study on the process of land expansion of urbanization and planning research, to analyze the fundamental character and laws of present urban development, to build the model about urban dynamic land use change and land use planning, to promote the sustainable land use, which would provide the suggestion of plan and development to relevant department.The research concerning about urban land use change has been experienced from static research to dynamic research. With the acquaintance of urban land system and the improvement of relevant theory and methods, the traditional researches are transferred into dynamics, self-organization, chaos and openness of urban land system. Therefore, the study on urban land system’s complex change has become increasingly prevalent and far-reaching. The traditional static and macro methods are incompetent, which cannot solve the complex problem about city, and the dynamic complicacy science are become the hot research topics.Above all, the author summarized achievements of the fore-researcher and in order to find the problem, the thesis cited Game theory and Multi-agent theory to study urban land expansion and planning scenarios simulation. Through applying the land expansion model and taking Jiayu County for an example, the author simulate urban land expansion. The research contents as follows:1. IntroductionThis part focuses on the outline and overview. First of all, it overviewed the research background, which introduced the concept about urbanization and land use change. For the reason of urbanization, we discussed the process of urban evolution; and through discussing land use change and land ecosystem, we summarized the research trends about urban land ecosystem and land use change; discussed the relation between urban land expansion and land use planning; analyzed urban expansion and land use simulation; put forward the shortage of present research; described the objectives, meaning and outline of thesis.2. Theory and methodsStarting with theory of complicacy science, we introduced CAS (Complex Adaptive System) and complicacy science. As a new way, complicacy science supports the research about urban evolution and simulation. MAS make the urban land use change and planning scenarios research from micro to macro. And then, it made further description on the concept, model, and structure of agent. As a pathway to allocate time of government, we described the game about its principle concept, principle elements and classification. By means of the introduction of complicacy science, MAS and game theory, it epitomized the thesis entirely.3. The study on complex adaptive character of urban land expansionIt made a brief description about urban land system. On the basis of urban system evolution pattern, the author discussed the mechanism of urban land expansion and illustrated the time-space complexity, self organization, chaos of urban land use system, which pointed out that the expansion are the interaction among the agents in the city. The interaction promote the change of urban land, that is to say, human-society is the roots of urban land system’s complexity. The simulation and forecast of urban land change was powerful supported by the rise of complicacy science. Then, the author discussed the application in urban land based on ABM.4. Game in urban land amount and land expansion simulation during planningIt illustrated time and space complexity, self organization and chaos phenomenon in urban land use system. First, it made a brief description on modeling mechanism and multi-agent model structure, including environment perception, scheme optimization and decision, and discussed behavioral rules of agents. Then, it made analysis on agent and decision rule in different agents of urban land expansion, including government agent, citizen agent and enterprise agent, which introduced extensional matter elements model into land position choice evaluation. At last, it made research on land planning scenario of game theory in different strategy of economic development. 5. Analysis and application of exampleIn this part, we took Jiayu County as an example. The author described physical geographical environment and social economic situation about study area. And in accordance with the requirement of study, it introduced simulation platform, including system structure and class library. The example adopted the game theory, MAS and extensional matter element model into study area and got the land use change simulation and land planning scenario simulation to forecast land use change and plan in the planning period.