Power Supply Reliability Planning For Urban Distribution System Of Wuhai Power Supply Company

The service level that the power companies supply to customer can be reflected by urban network power distribution reliability. Under the power market condition, enhance the power distribution reliability decide the competitive power of power company directly, simultaneously the development of national economy and the enhancement of resident living standard, set a higher request to the urban network power supply reliability. Therefore reasonable plan must be carried on to the urban network power supply reliability, so as to instruct the enhancement of urban e network reliability. This article links to the reality, has carried on plan to power supply reliability of Wuhai city electrical network from 2010 to 2012 .First analyzed the correlation factors affected the urban network power supply reliability, linked to the reality of Wuhai electrical network, based on the historical statistical data from 2005 to 2009 year, selected the average interruption hours of customer as feature sequence of the Wuhai city network power supply reliability, selected average length of the line, the average number of users in the line, the average capacity of line, insulation rate and dual power sources user and so on 5 factors as correlation factors, carried on gray relation analysis to each correlation factor and the feature sequence, obtained relational degree between each correlation factors and the feature sequence, then obtained the incidence order. Based on this, this paper made further analysis to the influence that each feature factor to power supply reliability.Next, based on the historical data of 2005-2009 year Wuhai power company power supply reliability index, made projections about 2010-2012 year reliability index by the trend extrapolation method, the gray forecast and the regression method separately, and used comprehensive prediction method for further processing about predict results of the three methods, obtained the comprehensive predict result. Based on the comprehensive predict result, obtained the 2010-2012 power supply reliability plan target value.Finally, based on the gray relation analysis result and the power supply reliability plan target value, proposed technical measure and manage measures to enhance the Wuhai city electrical network power supply reliability.