Research Of Parking Choice Behavior Based On Prospect Theory

With the development of society and economy as well as the acceleration of urbanization, the proportion of motorized travelling in central business districts keeps rising. As a result, the contradiction between parking supply and demand becomes increasingly prominent. The parking choice behavior needs to be studied more deeply and more accurately. Therefore prospect theory is used to establish parking choice model which takes into account the drivers'bounded rationality and the characteristics of information updating.First and foremost, the impact factors of parking choice are analyzed. Then the SP and RP methods of investigation are used to achieve the survey of drivers'parking choice behavior in a central area of Shenzhen. At last, the socio-economic attributes, traffic characteristics and information updating of drivers as well as the status of parking system are studied.According to the Bayesian updating model, a new model which describes the drivers'information updating, including the pre-trip updating and post-trip updating, is proposed. Regression analysis for the point of reference for each factor is implemented. The value function and the weight functions of decision-making for single factor are established so that the prospect value of each factor can be acquired. The multi-objective decision-making under fuzzy preference weight assignment method is used to assign the weight value of every factor. Then the overall values of options can be obtained as well, so a new parking choice model is proposed.As the parking choice model is constructed, the tactical layer agent and strategic layer agent are established. Tactical layer takes charge in the completion of parking choice behavior, and Strategic layer makes decisions, collects and publishes information. A simulation of parking choice behavior is implemented in Starlogo. The effect of implementing parking policies and measures is evaluated in various scenarios. The results of the simulation indicate that the parking system's level of resource utilization can be optimized by adjusting parking rates, and the contradiction of parking supply and demand can be mitigated by the setting of curb parking.