Methods Of Medium And Long Term Load Forecasting For Urban Natural Gas

Natural gas as a clean and high quality energy has both economic andenvironmental advantages .With the exploitation and utilization of Natural gasdeveloping constantly, the number and types of users grow rapidly.With the rapid development of natural gas supply,the level of productioncapacity, Network transmission capacity, distribution capacity of pipe network,storage capacity of storage facilities and so on has been improved continuously.Urban Natural Gas Load is the first step for Macro planning and industrial policy ofgovernment,it also affects company operations management, construction, designand interests. Research of Medium and Long term Load Forecasting for UrbanNatural Gas is applied to solve the real urgent need.In this article, Author analyses the development trend of Urban gas mediumand long-term load and affecting factors of various loads,makes use of GreyRelational Analysis Method to analyse annual load for finding the major factors onvariation in load,on the basis of case city data and Current status of Medium andLong term Load Forecasting at home and abroad.Then , according to therelationship between unit load and monthly load,the author puts the method ofmedium term load forecasting for urban natural gas and establishes monthly loadforecast model for residential users, commercial users, heating and refrigeratingusers, power users ,automotive gas users and the Total monthly load model.Theauthor establishes model of Long term Load Forecasting based on Grey ForecastingMethod and gives assessments of the models.For large and medium-sized cities with rapid development of natural gas, themodel and method of medium and long term forecasting natural gas load set up inthis article has better applicability and practical values. For natural gas load forecasting work of this kind of city, the model and method has certain referencesignificance and guiding function.