Countermeasures Of Rural Disaster Prevention And Reduction Planning And Evaluation Of Earthquake Damage Prediction

China is a multi-hazard country, and the vast majority of disasters occur in rural areas. Because the rural areas distribute widely, compared to cities, the natural environment generally poor, the impact of disasters can not be ignored. Although in recent years our government has made a great progress in disaster prevention and reduction, most is for cities, not for rural areas. With the social development and new rural construction, it is necessary to focus on rural disaster prevention and reduction, and disaster prevention and reduction planning is an effective way to reduce disaster losses in rural areas. The main contents of this thesis include:(1)According to China's actual situation in rural disaster prevention and reduction, the current status of earthquake damage prediction research and the critical problems about disaster prevention and reduction planning in rural areas are summarized. Considering the few studies in disaster prevention and reduction in rural areas and the advantages and disadvantages of urban disaster prevention and reduction planning, the thesis improves the basic framework for rural integrated disaster prevention by adding the idea of integrated disaster prevention based on the existing framework.(2)In order to achieve different objectives, village can develop disaster prevention planning selectively, according to the different types of village-scale, disaster situations and economic conditions etc. Therefore the thesis proposes a concept of rural disaster planning based on different objectives. From five aspects including shelter, width of the main evacuation channel and the number of exits, the lifeline constructions, earthquake damage prediction and disaster prevention projects, the disaster prevention targets are divided into four grades, initially establishing classifications of different villages for the disaster prevention planning.(3)Consulting the domestic and international research on disaster prevention in rural areas, appropriate measures in rural areas for disaster prevention and reduction are summarized, and a feasible measure of emergency material reserve is suggested. These measures can effectively reduce disaster losses, and ensure safety of lives and property of the villagers.(4)Combining the research achievements and related specifications, this thesis proposes a mathematical model of earthquake damage prediction in rural areas. The model contains nine evaluation factors and five damage grades of comments set including good condition, slight damage, moderate damage, severe damage and destruction. It uses two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to establish fuzzy matrix from the evaluation factors to the comments set. Then this model can evaluate the earthquake damage of the villages.(5)The method in this thesis is used to plan disaster prevention and reduction planning for the village of Keyue. According to the mathematical model, the Keyue's earthquake damage prediction is mild slight damage at 8 degree earthquake intensity after a post-disaster reconstruction.