Study On Traffic Demand And Evacuation In Urban Large-Scale Event

In order to meet the requirements of the development of the city's cultural life as well as the public demand,urban large-scale events have been held increasingly frequently.The local traffic increase quickly in a short period of time because of the large-scale events,that it is no doubt to bring greater pressure to the city traffic that has been already very serious.Therefore,how to ensure that evacuation traffic safety,fast and smooth during the activity and to minimize effect to the normal city traffic,are urgently needed to resolve a problem for city traffic manager.At home and abroad,most similar research is mainly aimed at the organized large-scale activity and special location of the targeted activity,such as Olympic Games, according to organizational plan before the events to guide the evacuation.However,the large-scale events common are usually held in opening location and it is difficult to control the crowd in and out.In view of the above problems,this article brought forward traffic demand forecasting methods based on the characteristics of evacuation during large-scale public events and studied evacuation traffic management measures,and analyzed the typical case.Firstly,the characteristics of evacuation were studied during large-scale events in this paper.Studied in-depth the traffic demand forecasting methods in large-scale activities based on a four-stage method and got the best demand forecasting process. Confirming respectively the normal traffic distribution and the traffic caused by the activity in the region got the traffic distribution during large-scale activities.And baseding on evacuation traffic characteristics,selected stochastic user equilibrium model to do traffic assignment.Then,based on method above,took traffic measures in the evacuation process, including road control,cut- traffic control,parking settings and populations guidance.In order to test the effectiveness of the measures,established a rational indicators -saturation of road,speed of traffic and the total evacuation time based on purpose and principle of large-scale evacuation.Last,traffic demand was forecasted in Hankou bank,Wuhan based on the method above.After preparation of data network,confirmed the normal traffic distribution, namely the best PA matrix,according to the four-stage method in large-scale activities. And then,determined resistance coefficient of the road and introduced assignment model. Analyzed the demand and took appropriate traffic control measures,including setting one-way street,changing the properties of intersection after getting traffic demand. Finally,simulated the demand forecast and evacuation project with TransCAD,and concluded measures were effective with the evaluation index.This article discussed the demand forecasting methods,and the evacuation program, as well as the application given in large-scale activities,which had reference value for the traffic organization and management.In this paper,the traffic evacuation program can be made to ease traffic pressure effectively,it has good practicality.