Research On Agriculture Water And Soil Resources Carrying Capacity Based On Macro-Micro Scale In Sanjiang Plain

Sanjiang plain as China's important commodity grain base is the key to realizing the strategic goal of Heilongjiang QianYiJin food and guaranteeing grain security. But for many years, the pursuit of economic efficiency leads to excessive rice planting area and single planting structure. 80% of agricultural irrigation water comes from groundwater, which is utilized seriously, and the utilization of surface water is not worth. All of those cause serious imbalance of Sanjiang plain agricultural water. In addition, the cultivated land reclamation not governance and degraded soil quality, cause increasing proportion of gain. Visible, the utilization of Sanjiang plain agricultural water and soil resource is not rational, and the comprehensive utilization efficiency is much lower. Therefore, it is more particularly important to evaluate reasonably Sanjiang plain agricultural water and soil resource capacity level and realize sustainable utilization of agricultural resources, in the premise of ensuring the national food safety and regional ecological security.Aiming at the existing problems of agricultural water and soil resource utilization in Sanjiang plain, taking Sanjiang plain Jiansanjing area as an example, this paper systematically analyzed the theoretical connotation of agricultural water and soil resources carrying capacity. By establishing the macroscopic and microscopic evaluation index system and the corresponding solution model, it is evaluated and predicted for agricultural water and soil resource carrying capacity of 15 state-owned farms selecting 2008 as status quo years, 2010,2020 and 2030 as forecast years. Finally, the corresponding improving capacity opinions and measures are put forward according to the evaluation results. The main research contents and results are as follows:Firstly based on systematically analyzing the theoretical connotation of water and soil resources carrying capacity, the concept of agricultural water and soil resources carrying capacity is put forward, in this paper, agricultural sustainable development theory and agricultural water and soil resources capacity evaluation research are organically combined together. If to realize the sustainable utilization of agricultural water and soil resources, agricultural water and soil resource sustainable capacity must be studied. The agricultural water and soil resources -- society - food production -- the ecological environment composite system theory are established, to point out that the system's goal is not simply to pursue economic benefit maximization, but to comprehensive consider coordinated development and sustainable development among the relationship of economy, society, resources, environment and other aspects.Secondly the micro and macro agricultural soil and water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system and the corresponding calculation model are respectively established. The micro model used to work out maximum food production and population quantity supported by agricultural soil and water resources, namely working out truly numerical size of agricultural water and soil resources carrying capacity, then comparing with other regional agricultural water and soil resources carrying capacity, finally quantitily judging the actual level of agriculture water and soil resources carrying capacity. Macro agricultural water and soil resources carrying capacity utilized the conceptual model of DPSIR index system, to work out the relative level of agricultural water and soil resources carrying capacity each farm.Taking short-term and long-term agricultural development planning determined by Heilongjiang provincial party committee as guiding direction, using the goals set by national development plans as the final result, this paper used scene and forecast method to separately predict the development and change of many indexes which affect Sanjiang plain agricultural water and soil resources carrying capacity in 2010 ,2020 and 2030. And ensure forecasting results meet the actual development direction of regional society, make sure the accuracy of the results, and expect to provide practical reference value for agricultural production. Projection Pursuit Principal Components Analysis model is put forward and to comprehensively evaluate macro agricultural soil and water resources carrying capacity. Five index systems of the DPSIR conceptual model are respectively solved and analyzed by using the PPPCA model, and evaluation results are visualized by ArcGIS, to more intuitively judge the changing trend of carrying capacity level. Then, corresponding improved capacity opinions and measures are put forward according to change characteristics.Finally, the article summarizes the main research results, points out the studied shortage and prospects the future research direction.